TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 29, 8:29 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the actual level of US import tariffs applied during a specific three-month period in 2026. It reflects the real economic impact of trade policies on the cost of imported goods entering the United States during that time.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on the US effective tariff rate for Q3 2026, calculated as customs duties collected divided by nominal imports of goods, using specific BEA data codes. Multiple markets exist with escalating threshold requirements, each resolving to 'Yes' if the calculated rate exceeds its designated percentage level. The structure creates a tiered resolution framework where higher-threshold markets inherently confirm the conditions of lower-threshold markets, allowing for nuanced assessment of tariff rate magnitudes across the specified period.
Frequently asked questions
Compared to traditional analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more immediate, risk-adjusted view of potential policy shifts. While analysts may incorporate long-term economic models, traders react quickly to news, polls, and geopolitical developments. This can lead to divergence, especially when new information emerges that wasn’t priced in by formal forecasts.
On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Kalshi, traders set prices through continuous bidding and asking, with the current top outcome reflecting the aggregate expectations of participants. The market uses a logarithmic market scoring rule to determine payouts, incentivizing accurate forecasting. Liquidity and volume fluctuations can shift prices rapidly in response to new economic data or policy statements.
This market resolves around Nov 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once official government data and credible public reporting verify the effective tariff rate for Q3 2026. The result will reflect the average tariff rate applied during that quarter, as calculated from authoritative economic and trade sources.
Key signals that could shift this market include major trade policy announcements, changes in presidential or congressional leadership, international trade agreements, and economic indicators influencing trade policy. Events such as tariff negotiations, import/export data releases, and geopolitical developments are also likely to affect trader sentiment and pricing dynamics leading up to resolution.
