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US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) Up or Down on October 12?
polymarket

US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) Up or Down on October 12?

Volume:
$10

US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) Up or Down on October 12?

 - Polymarket

US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) Up or Down on October 12? - Polymarket

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Resolved Oct 12, 2026

Closed: Oct 12, 9:13 PM EST

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US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) Up or Down on October 12?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) on October 12, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including October 12, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on October 12, 2026, or if October 12, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FTRY. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) on October 12, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including October 12, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on October 12, 2026, or if October 12, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FTRY. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for this market tracks the current implied probability of the USD/TRY exchange rate increasing or decreasing by October 12. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the trading volume over the past 24 hours, currently at $10. The total volume traded on this market is $10. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and the intensity of betting activity surrounding the future direction of the USD/TRY exchange rate. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how PredictionHero users are forecasting this financial event.

Currently, prediction market participants are strongly indicating a specific direction for the USD/TRY exchange rate. It’s interesting to compare this collective forecast with those from financial analysts. Are experts predicting the same outcome? Do their analyses align with the wisdom of the crowd reflected in this market? While analyst forecasts can offer valuable insights, this market provides a unique perspective based on real money at stake, potentially offering a more accurate signal of what will actually happen. Examining the contrast between these viewpoints can be a useful exercise for anyone following this financial pair.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether the USD/TRY exchange rate will be up or down on October 12. The price of these shares directly reflects the probability of that outcome, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The higher the price of shares betting on an increase, the more confident traders are in that direction. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds constantly adjust to incorporate new information and changing sentiment, offering a real-time assessment of expectations.

This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official exchange rate between the US Dollar and the Turkish Lira as reported by a widely recognized financial data provider at a specific time on October 12. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of whether the USD/TRY exchange rate was ultimately up or down, based on real-world data. Traders will then receive payouts based on their holdings in the winning outcome.

Several factors could significantly influence the direction of this market before Oct 12, 2026. Major economic announcements from either the United States or Turkey, such as interest rate decisions or inflation data, could trigger substantial movements. Geopolitical events, including shifts in political stability or international relations, could also impact investor confidence and currency valuations. Unexpected policy changes or interventions by central banks are other potential catalysts. Monitoring these events and their potential impact on the USD/TRY exchange rate is crucial for understanding how this market might evolve.