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US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) Up or Down on November 2?
polymarket

US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) Up or Down on November 2?

Oct 30, 2026, 8:01 AM EST - Nov 2, 2026, 5:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$5
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$1,999
1,999,196%
Open interest:
$5N/A

US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) Up or Down on November 2?

 - Polymarket

US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) Up or Down on November 2? - Polymarket

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Resolves Nov 2, 2026

US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) Up or Down on November 2?

100%chance
Amount

$

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Trade on Polymarket

At 99¢ buys you 101 shares | Odds: 100% Total Payout: $101 | Net Profit: $1 Multiplier: 1.01x | ROI: 1% | APY: N/A Illiquid market
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7d
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polymarket

US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) Up or Down on November 2?

Trade
100%
Yes 100¢No 0.1¢
0.1¢
$1,999
$5
0%
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
Disputed
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) on November 2, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including November 2, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on November 2, 2026, or if November 2, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FTRY. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) on November 2, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including November 2, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on November 2, 2026, or if November 2, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Turkish Lira (USD/TRY) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FTRY. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for this market tracks the current implied probability of the USD/TRY exchange rate increasing or decreasing by November 2. It displays the odds of each outcome, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have shifted over time. You can also view the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $5, and the total volume traded to date, which is $5. This provides a clear picture of market sentiment and activity surrounding the future direction of the USD/TRY exchange rate.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for the USD/TRY exchange rate. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, expressing the probability of an increase or decrease. It's important to note that analyst opinions can vary widely, and this market represents a different form of forecasting – one driven by individuals incentivized to accurately predict the outcome. Examining both sources can provide a more comprehensive understanding of potential movements in the exchange rate.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether the USD/TRY exchange rate will be up or down on November 2. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe the exchange rate will increase, the higher the price of the 'Up' shares will climb, and vice versa for the 'Down' shares. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the collective intelligence of participants.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the official closing exchange rate for USD/TRY on November 2, as reported by a widely recognized financial data provider. The market will then determine whether the exchange rate was higher or lower than its value at the market's launch, establishing the winning outcome. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome will receive a payout.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Nov 2, 2026. Major economic data releases from both the United States and Turkey, such as inflation reports, GDP growth figures, and unemployment rates, could all impact the USD/TRY exchange rate. Geopolitical events, including shifts in political stability or international relations, are also potential catalysts. Furthermore, unexpected policy changes by the central banks of either country, or significant fluctuations in global risk sentiment, could drive substantial movement in this market. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding potential shifts in the odds.