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US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Up or Down on October 26?
polymarket

US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Up or Down on October 26?

Volume:
$10

US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Up or Down on October 26?

 - Polymarket

US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Up or Down on October 26? - Polymarket

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Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 10:09 PM EST

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US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Up or Down on October 26?

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) on October 26, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including October 26, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on October 26, 2026, or if October 26, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FCHF. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) on October 26, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including October 26, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on October 26, 2026, or if October 26, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FCHF. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for this market tracks the current implied probability of the USD/CHF exchange rate increasing or decreasing by October 26. You’ll find a real-time view of the odds, along with the total volume traded, currently at $10, and the 24-hour volume, which is $10. This allows traders to gauge market sentiment and see how the perceived likelihood of an upward or downward move is evolving as Oct 26, 2026 approaches. The dashboard provides a dynamic representation of predictions regarding the USD/CHF exchange rate.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for the USD/CHF exchange rate. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, expressing expectations as probabilities. It's common to see discrepancies between the two, as markets can incorporate information and react to news more rapidly than consensus analyst views. Examining these differences can be insightful, especially when considering the potential for unexpected economic data releases or geopolitical events to influence the exchange rate.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether the USD/CHF exchange rate will be up or down on Oct 26, 2026. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more shares bought indicating an increase, the higher the price rises, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds continuously adapt to new information and trader sentiment regarding the USD/CHF exchange rate.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the official closing price of the USD/CHF exchange rate on that date. If the closing price is higher than its value at the start of the day, the ‘Up’ outcome prevails; otherwise, the ‘Down’ outcome is considered correct. Traders will be able to see the verified result on Polymarket following the close of trading on the relevant day, determining the payout for winning shares.

Several key signals and events could significantly move this market before Oct 26, 2026. Major economic data releases from both the United States and Switzerland, such as inflation reports, employment figures, and GDP growth rates, are likely to influence the USD/CHF exchange rate. Unexpected shifts in monetary policy from the Federal Reserve or the Swiss National Bank would also be impactful. Geopolitical events and global risk sentiment can also play a role, as the Swiss Franc is often seen as a safe-haven currency. Any significant developments in these areas could trigger substantial trading activity and a shift in the odds.