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US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Up or Down on October 19?
polymarket

US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Up or Down on October 19?

Volume:
$10

US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Up or Down on October 19?

 - Polymarket

US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Up or Down on October 19? - Polymarket

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Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 9:27 PM EST

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US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Up or Down on October 19?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) on October 19, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including October 19, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on October 19, 2026, or if October 19, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FCHF. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) on October 19, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including October 19, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on October 19, 2026, or if October 19, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FCHF. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for this market tracks the current implied probability of the USD/CHF exchange rate increasing or decreasing by October 19. You’ll find a dynamic display of the odds, reflecting what traders are willing to pay to bet on either outcome. The dashboard also shows the total volume traded in this market, currently at $10, and the 24-hour volume, which is $10. This provides a real-time view of market sentiment surrounding the future direction of the USD/CHF exchange rate.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for the USD/CHF exchange rate. While many analysts are providing varying predictions based on macroeconomic indicators, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, revealing what traders believe is most likely to happen. Discrepancies between this market and analyst expectations can highlight areas of disagreement or overlooked factors. It’s important to note that analyst forecasts represent individual opinions, whereas this market reflects a collective assessment of probabilities.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether the USD/CHF exchange rate will be up or down on October 19. The price of these shares directly reflects the probability of that outcome, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts accordingly, providing a dynamic and real-time assessment of the potential movement of the USD/CHF exchange rate.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on whether the USD/CHF exchange rate is higher or lower at the specified time, as reported by a widely recognized financial data provider. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies based on the final result. The market's outcome is determined solely by the exchange rate at the resolution time.

Several key signals and events could significantly influence this market before Oct 19, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases from the United States or Switzerland, such as inflation reports, employment figures, or GDP growth, could trigger shifts in the USD/CHF exchange rate. Geopolitical events or changes in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve or the Swiss National Bank are also likely catalysts. Furthermore, major shifts in global risk sentiment or unexpected news related to international trade could impact this market, driving changes in trader sentiment and volume.