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US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Up or Down on October 12?
polymarket

US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Up or Down on October 12?

Volume:
$10

US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Up or Down on October 12?

 - Polymarket

US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Up or Down on October 12? - Polymarket

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Resolved Oct 12, 2026

Closed: Oct 12, 9:14 PM EST

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US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) Up or Down on October 12?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) on October 12, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including October 12, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on October 12, 2026, or if October 12, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FCHF. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) on October 12, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including October 12, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on October 12, 2026, or if October 12, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Swiss Franc (USD/CHF) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FCHF. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for this market tracks the current implied probability of the USD/CHF exchange rate being higher or lower on Oct 12, 2026. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the trading volume over the past 24 hours, currently at $10. The total volume traded in this market is $10. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity related to the future direction of the USD/CHF exchange rate. The dashboard provides a dynamic view of how predictions are evolving as new information becomes available.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may rely on economic models and fundamental analysis, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, incorporating a wider range of information and potential catalysts. It's common to see discrepancies, particularly when unexpected events occur or sentiment shifts rapidly. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market expectations and potential biases, offering a unique perspective beyond conventional financial analysis. This market represents a forward-looking assessment of the USD/CHF exchange rate.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether the USD/CHF exchange rate will be up or down on Oct 12, 2026. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the price adjusts, providing a real-time assessment of market sentiment. The current price indicates the collective expectation of traders regarding the future direction of the USD/CHF exchange rate, making it a valuable indicator of market opinion.

This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official closing price of the USD/CHF exchange rate on that date. This price will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider, ensuring transparency and accuracy. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies based on the final result. The market’s resolution provides a clear and objective determination of whether the USD/CHF exchange rate was ultimately up or down.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 12, 2026. Major economic data releases from the United States and Switzerland, such as inflation reports, GDP figures, and employment numbers, will likely cause price fluctuations. Unexpected geopolitical events or shifts in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve or the Swiss National Bank could also have a substantial impact. Furthermore, changes in global risk sentiment or significant news related to major trading partners could move the market. Traders should closely monitor these developments to assess potential shifts in the USD/CHF exchange rate.