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US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK) Up or Down on October 26?
polymarket

US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK) Up or Down on October 26?

Volume:
$10

US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK) Up or Down on October 26?

 - Polymarket

US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK) Up or Down on October 26? - Polymarket

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Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 10:09 PM EST

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US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK) Up or Down on October 26?

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100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK) on October 26, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including October 26, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on October 26, 2026, or if October 26, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FSEK. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK) on October 26, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including October 26, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on October 26, 2026, or if October 26, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FSEK. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for this market tracks the current implied probability of the USD/SEK exchange rate being higher or lower on Oct 26, 2026. You can view the current odds, along with the 24-hour trading volume, which is currently $10. The total volume traded on this market to date is $10. This allows traders to see how sentiment is shifting and how much capital is backing each potential outcome regarding the USD/SEK exchange rate. The dashboard provides a real-time view of market participants’ expectations.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective when compared to traditional analyst forecasts for currency movements. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, expressing expectations as probabilities. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. If analysts broadly predict a strengthening of the USD against the SEK, we might see higher probabilities assigned to the 'Up' outcome in this market. Conversely, if forecasts lean towards a weakening dollar, the 'Down' outcome could be favored. It’s valuable to consider both viewpoints.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether the USD/SEK exchange rate will be up or down on Oct 26, 2026. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts, providing a dynamic assessment of market sentiment. The market’s price isn’t tied to any single analyst’s view but rather represents a collective forecast based on the aggregated actions of all traders.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the official closing exchange rate for the USD/SEK pair on that date. If the exchange rate is higher than its value at the start of the day on Oct 26, 2026, the 'Up' outcome will prevail. Conversely, if it is lower, the 'Down' outcome will be considered the result. The final exchange rate will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider to ensure accuracy and transparency.

Several economic indicators and geopolitical events could significantly impact this market before Oct 26, 2026. Key US economic data releases, such as inflation reports, employment figures, and Federal Reserve policy announcements, are likely to influence the USD's strength. Similarly, developments in Sweden, including Riksbank monetary policy decisions and economic growth data, will affect the SEK. Unexpected global events, shifts in risk appetite, and major news regarding international trade could also trigger substantial movements in the USD/SEK exchange rate, causing shifts in this market’s probabilities.