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US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK) Up or Down on October 12?
polymarket

US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK) Up or Down on October 12?

Volume:
$10

US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK) Up or Down on October 12?

 - Polymarket

US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK) Up or Down on October 12? - Polymarket

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Resolved Oct 12, 2026

Closed: Oct 12, 9:13 PM EST

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US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK) Up or Down on October 12?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK) on October 12, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including October 12, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on October 12, 2026, or if October 12, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FSEK. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK) on October 12, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including October 12, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on October 12, 2026, or if October 12, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FSEK. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for this market tracks the current implied probability of the USD/SEK exchange rate being higher or lower on Oct 12, 2026. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the total volume traded, currently at $10, and the 24-hour volume, which is $10. The dashboard provides a real-time view of how traders are assessing the potential movement of the USD/SEK exchange rate, offering insights into market sentiment. This allows you to monitor shifts in expectations leading up to the resolution date.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for the USD/SEK exchange rate. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates the collective wisdom of traders, expressing their beliefs as probabilities. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, information access, or biases. If analysts generally predict a stable exchange rate, but this market shows a strong bias towards 'Up' or 'Down', it suggests a divergence in expectations. Examining this difference can be valuable for informed decision-making.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where participants buy and sell shares representing their belief about the future direction of the USD/SEK exchange rate. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the evolving consensus of traders. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The current implied probability of the USD/SEK exchange rate being higher or lower is determined by the relative prices of the 'Up' and 'Down' shares, providing a dynamic assessment of market sentiment. This creates a liquid market for forecasting this financial event.

This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the official exchange rate of the USD/SEK as reported by a widely recognized financial data provider at a specified time on that date. The market will determine whether the exchange rate is higher or lower compared to its value at the market's launch. This ensures a transparent and objective assessment of the market’s predictive accuracy.

Several economic indicators and geopolitical events could significantly influence this market. Unexpected changes in US or Swedish monetary policy, such as interest rate adjustments by the Federal Reserve or the Riksbank, would likely cause movement. Major economic data releases, including inflation reports, GDP growth figures, and employment numbers from both countries, could also shift trader sentiment. Geopolitical events, like shifts in global risk appetite or unexpected political developments, could also impact the USD/SEK exchange rate and, consequently, this market.