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US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK) Up or Down on November 2?
polymarket

US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK) Up or Down on November 2?

Volume:
$5

US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK) Up or Down on November 2?

 - Polymarket

US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK) Up or Down on November 2? - Polymarket

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Resolved Nov 2, 2026

Closed: Nov 2, 10:10 PM EST

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US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK) Up or Down on November 2?

View
0%
50%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$5
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK) on November 2, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including November 2, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on November 2, 2026, or if November 2, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FSEK. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK) on November 2, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including November 2, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on November 2, 2026, or if November 2, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Swedish Krona (USD/SEK) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FSEK. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for this market tracks the current implied probability of the USD/SEK exchange rate increasing or decreasing by November 2. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the trading volume of $5 over the past 24 hours, and the total volume traded to date of $5. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and participation. The dashboard also provides a price history, showing how the probabilities have shifted over time as new information becomes available and traders adjust their positions.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for the USD/SEK exchange rate. While some analysts predict a continued strengthening of the US dollar, this market suggests a more nuanced outlook. It’s important to remember that analyst forecasts are often based on economic models and assumptions, while this market represents the collective wisdom of traders who are putting their capital at risk. Discrepancies can arise due to differing interpretations of economic data or unforeseen events influencing the exchange rate.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether the USD/SEK exchange rate will be higher or lower on November 2. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and express their views, the price adjusts to reflect the collective sentiment. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market remains responsive to new information and evolving expectations regarding the exchange rate.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the official USD/SEK exchange rate as reported by a widely recognized financial data provider at the designated resolution time. The market will determine whether the exchange rate on November 2 is higher or lower than its value at the market’s launch, based on this publicly available data. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of the outcome.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Nov 2, 2026. Major economic data releases from both the United States and Sweden, such as inflation reports, employment figures, and GDP growth data, will likely impact the USD/SEK exchange rate. Unexpected geopolitical events or shifts in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve or the Riksbank could also trigger substantial price movements. Furthermore, changes in global risk sentiment or significant fluctuations in commodity prices could indirectly affect the exchange rate and, consequently, this market.