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US Dollar / South Korean Won (USD/KRW) Up or Down on October 5?
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US Dollar / South Korean Won (USD/KRW) Up or Down on October 5?

Volume:
$10

US Dollar / South Korean Won (USD/KRW) Up or Down on October 5?

 - Polymarket

US Dollar / South Korean Won (USD/KRW) Up or Down on October 5? - Polymarket

1W

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Resolved Oct 5, 2026

Closed: Oct 5, 9:08 PM EST

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US Dollar / South Korean Won (USD/KRW) Up or Down on October 5?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / South Korean Won (USD/KRW) on October 5, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / South Korean Won (USD/KRW), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including October 5, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on October 5, 2026, or if October 5, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / South Korean Won (USD/KRW) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FKRW. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / South Korean Won (USD/KRW) on October 5, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / South Korean Won (USD/KRW), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including October 5, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on October 5, 2026, or if October 5, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / South Korean Won (USD/KRW) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FKRW. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for this market tracks the current implied probability of the USD/KRW exchange rate increasing or decreasing by October 5. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the trading volume over the past 24 hours, currently at $10. The total volume traded on this market is $10. This allows users to see how confidence in either direction is shifting as new information becomes available and traders adjust their positions. The dashboard provides a dynamic view of market sentiment regarding the future direction of the exchange rate.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for the USD/KRW exchange rate. While many analysts are predicting a continued strengthening of the US dollar, this market reflects a more nuanced view. It’s important to remember that analyst forecasts are often based on economic models and historical data, whereas this market incorporates the collective wisdom of traders reacting to real-time information and events. This difference in approach can lead to diverging opinions on the likely outcome of this market.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether the USD/KRW exchange rate will be up or down on October 5. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and express their views, the price adjusts to reflect the collective sentiment. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market remains responsive to new information and changing expectations regarding the exchange rate.

This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official USD/KRW exchange rate at a specific time on October 5, as reported by a widely recognized financial data provider. This ensures a transparent and objective determination of whether the exchange rate was ultimately up or down. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies based on the final result of this market.

Several key signals and events could significantly influence this market before Oct 5, 2026. Major economic data releases from both the United States and South Korea, such as inflation reports, employment figures, and GDP growth rates, will likely impact the USD/KRW exchange rate. Geopolitical events, including any shifts in international trade relations or political tensions, could also play a role. Unexpected policy announcements from the Federal Reserve or the Bank of Korea regarding interest rates or monetary policy could create substantial market volatility and shift the odds in this market.