US Dollar / South Korean Won (USD/KRW) Up or Down on October 26? Odds & Prediction Markets

Name: US Dollar / South Korean Won (USD/KRW) Up or Down on October 26?
Start: 2026-10-23T12:01:04.000Z
End: 2026-10-26T21:00:00.000Z

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / South Korean Won (USD/KRW) on October 26, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / South Korean Won (USD/KRW), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including October 26, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on October 26, 2026, or if October 26, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / South Korean Won (USD/KRW) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FKRW. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / South Korean Won (USD/KRW) on October 26, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / South Korean Won (USD/KRW), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including October 26, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on October 26, 2026, or if October 26, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / South Korean Won (USD/KRW) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FKRW. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for the USD/KRW exchange rate. While many analysts are focused on macroeconomic indicators and geopolitical factors, this market reflects the collective wisdom of PredictionHero traders. It’s important to note that analyst predictions often vary widely, and this market provides a consolidated, real-time view of expectations. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas of disagreement or overlooked factors influencing the potential movement of the exchange rate.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where users buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether the USD/KRW exchange rate will be up or down on October 26. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to incorporate new information and perspectives, creating a dynamic and efficient forecast. The current volume traded indicates the level of interest and conviction surrounding this particular market.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the official closing exchange rate for the USD/KRW pair on October 26, as reported by a widely recognized financial data provider. The market will determine whether the exchange rate has increased or decreased from its value at the market’s creation. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final outcome.

Several signals and events could significantly move this market before Oct 26, 2026. Major economic data releases from both the United States and South Korea, such as inflation reports, employment figures, or GDP growth rates, will likely influence trader sentiment. Geopolitical developments, particularly those involving North Korea or trade relations between the US and South Korea, could also cause substantial shifts. Unexpected policy announcements from the Federal Reserve or the Bank of Korea regarding interest rates or monetary policy are additional catalysts to watch.

US Dollar / South Korean Won (USD/KRW) Up or Down on October 26?

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