US Dollar / South Korean Won (USD/KRW) Up or Down on October 12? Odds & Prediction Markets

Name: US Dollar / South Korean Won (USD/KRW) Up or Down on October 12?
Start: 2026-10-09T12:01:10.000Z
End: 2026-10-12T21:00:00.000Z

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / South Korean Won (USD/KRW) on October 12, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / South Korean Won (USD/KRW), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including October 12, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on October 12, 2026, or if October 12, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / South Korean Won (USD/KRW) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FKRW. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / South Korean Won (USD/KRW) on October 12, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / South Korean Won (USD/KRW), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including October 12, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on October 12, 2026, or if October 12, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / South Korean Won (USD/KRW) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FKRW. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the USD/KRW exchange rate tracks the current probabilities associated with the market resolving Up or Down. You can view the implied probabilities of each outcome, as well as the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $30. The total volume traded on this market is $30. This allows traders to gauge market sentiment and see how actively the market is being traded. The dashboard updates continuously to reflect the latest trading activity and probability shifts.

Currently, prediction market odds suggest a strong expectation for a specific outcome. It’s interesting to compare this to what financial analysts are predicting for the USD/KRW exchange rate. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market offers a probabilistic view, representing the collective wisdom of traders. Discrepancies between this market and analyst forecasts can highlight differing assumptions or levels of confidence in various economic indicators and geopolitical factors influencing the exchange rate.

This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official exchange rate between the US Dollar and the South Korean Won at a specific time on that date. The exact time and source for the exchange rate will be determined by Polymarket’s resolution process. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final outcome of the market.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 12, 2026. Major economic data releases from both the United States and South Korea, such as inflation reports, GDP growth figures, and employment numbers, could all impact the USD/KRW exchange rate. Geopolitical events, including shifts in international trade relations or political instability, could also play a role. Unexpected policy changes by the Federal Reserve or the Bank of Korea regarding interest rates or monetary policy are additional catalysts that could move this market.

US Dollar / South Korean Won (USD/KRW) Up or Down on October 12?

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