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US Dollar / South African Rand (USD/ZAR) Up or Down on October 26?
polymarket

US Dollar / South African Rand (USD/ZAR) Up or Down on October 26?

Volume:
$10

US Dollar / South African Rand (USD/ZAR) Up or Down on October 26?

 - Polymarket

US Dollar / South African Rand (USD/ZAR) Up or Down on October 26? - Polymarket

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Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 10:11 PM EST

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US Dollar / South African Rand (USD/ZAR) Up or Down on October 26?

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / South African Rand (USD/ZAR) on October 26, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / South African Rand (USD/ZAR), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including October 26, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on October 26, 2026, or if October 26, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / South African Rand (USD/ZAR) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FZAR. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / South African Rand (USD/ZAR) on October 26, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / South African Rand (USD/ZAR), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including October 26, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on October 26, 2026, or if October 26, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / South African Rand (USD/ZAR) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FZAR. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for this market tracks the current implied probability of the USD/ZAR exchange rate increasing or decreasing by October 26. You’ll find a real-time view of the odds, allowing you to see how traders are pricing in potential movements. The dashboard also displays the total volume traded in this market, currently at $10, and the 24-hour volume, which is $10. This provides a snapshot of market activity and how sentiment is shifting regarding the future direction of the exchange rate.

Currently, prediction market odds represent a collective forecast of whether the USD/ZAR exchange rate will be up or down. These odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts, which may be based on economic models or specific reports. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as this market incorporates a wider range of information and real-time sentiment. Comparing this market’s implied probabilities to those from financial news outlets and expert opinions can provide a more comprehensive view of potential outcomes.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about the USD/ZAR exchange rate’s future direction. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The closer we get to Oct 26, 2026, the more the price will converge towards either 100 (indicating a strong belief in an increase) or 0 (indicating a strong belief in a decrease). Volume plays a key role, with higher volume generally indicating greater confidence in the prevailing price.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on whether the USD/ZAR exchange rate is higher or lower on October 26 than its value at the beginning of that day. The exact time of determination will be 21:00:00.000Z. This ensures a clear and objective determination of the market’s outcome based on publicly available financial data.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 26, 2026. Major economic data releases from both the United States and South Africa, such as inflation reports, employment figures, and GDP growth rates, will likely cause price fluctuations. Geopolitical events, shifts in global risk sentiment, and changes in commodity prices (particularly gold and oil) could also play a role. Unexpected policy announcements from the Federal Reserve or the South African Reserve Bank could also trigger substantial movements in the USD/ZAR exchange rate and, consequently, in this market.