TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.5b

24H VOL:

$271,200,656

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,922,627,141

420,368

Markets across

40,352

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,484

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) Up or Down on October 5?
polymarket

US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) Up or Down on October 5?

Volume:
$10

US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) Up or Down on October 5?

 - Polymarket

US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) Up or Down on October 5? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 5, 2026

Closed: Oct 5, 9:08 PM EST

polymarket

Polymarket

View
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) Up or Down on October 5?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) on October 5, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including October 5, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on October 5, 2026, or if October 5, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FNOK. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) on October 5, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including October 5, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on October 5, 2026, or if October 5, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FNOK. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for this market tracks the current implied probability of the USD/NOK exchange rate increasing or decreasing by October 5. You’ll find a real-time view of the odds, along with the total volume traded, currently at $10, and the 24-hour volume, which is $10. This allows traders to gauge market sentiment and see how the perceived likelihood of an upward or downward move is evolving. The dashboard provides a clear picture of how participants are positioning themselves on the future direction of the USD/NOK exchange rate.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a unique perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for the USD/NOK exchange rate. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, expressing expectations as probabilities. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, information access, or biases. If a significant difference exists between the implied probability on Polymarket and the consensus view of financial analysts, it could signal an opportunity for informed traders. It’s important to consider both sources of information when forming your own view.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether the USD/NOK exchange rate will be up or down on October 5. The price of these shares reflects the market’s collective assessment of that probability. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts, providing a dynamic indication of market sentiment. The current price indicates the cost to take a position on the outcome, and the volume traded reflects the level of interest in this particular market.

This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official exchange rate for USD/NOK at a specified time on October 5, as reported by a widely recognized financial data provider. The market will determine whether the exchange rate has moved up or down from its starting point, and shares will pay out accordingly. Traders should monitor news and economic data releases leading up to the resolution date to stay informed about potential catalysts.

Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 5, 2026. Key economic data releases from both the United States and Norway, such as inflation reports, employment figures, and interest rate decisions, will likely influence the USD/NOK exchange rate. Geopolitical events, shifts in global risk sentiment, and changes in oil prices (given Norway's role as a major oil producer) could also have a substantial impact. Unexpected news related to either country’s economic policies or political stability could also trigger price movements in this market.