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US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) Up or Down on October 26?
polymarket

US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) Up or Down on October 26?

Volume:
$20

US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) Up or Down on October 26?

 - Polymarket

US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) Up or Down on October 26? - Polymarket

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Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 10:09 PM EST

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US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) Up or Down on October 26?

View
0%
99%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) on October 26, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including October 26, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on October 26, 2026, or if October 26, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FNOK. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) on October 26, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including October 26, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on October 26, 2026, or if October 26, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FNOK. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for this market tracks the current implied probability of the USD/NOK exchange rate increasing or decreasing by October 26. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the total volume traded—currently $20—and the 24-hour volume, which is $20. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and activity surrounding the future direction of this exchange rate. The dashboard updates continuously as new trades are placed, providing a real-time view of predictions.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for the USD/NOK exchange rate. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, expressing predictions as probabilities. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, information access, or biases. It’s important to note that analyst forecasts are often based on economic models and reports, while this market reflects real-time speculation and potentially incorporates information not yet reflected in public analysis.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether the USD/NOK exchange rate will be up or down on October 26. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts, providing a dynamic assessment of market expectations. The current volume indicates the level of interest and conviction surrounding this prediction.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the official closing exchange rate for the USD/NOK pair on October 26, as reported by a widely recognized financial data provider. The market will then determine whether the exchange rate was higher or lower than its value at the market’s launch, based on this publicly available data. Traders will be able to claim their winnings based on the final outcome.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 26, 2026. Major economic data releases from both the United States and Norway, such as inflation reports, GDP figures, and employment numbers, could shift expectations. Unexpected geopolitical events or changes in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve or Norges Bank would also likely have a substantial impact. Furthermore, fluctuations in global oil prices, given Norway's status as a major oil producer, could also move this market, as could shifts in investor risk appetite and broader currency market trends.