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US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) Up or Down on October 12?
polymarket

US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) Up or Down on October 12?

Volume:
$30

US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) Up or Down on October 12?

 - Polymarket

US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) Up or Down on October 12? - Polymarket

1W

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Resolved Oct 12, 2026

Closed: Oct 12, 9:13 PM EST

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US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) Up or Down on October 12?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) on October 12, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including October 12, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on October 12, 2026, or if October 12, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FNOK. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) on October 12, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including October 12, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on October 12, 2026, or if October 12, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Norwegian Krone (USD/NOK) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FNOK. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for this market tracks the current implied probability of the USD/NOK exchange rate being higher or lower on Oct 12, 2026. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the total volume traded, currently at $30, and the 24-hour volume, which is $30. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and participation levels. The dashboard provides a clear overview of how the market is perceiving the potential direction of the exchange rate, offering insight into the collective forecast.

Currently, the prevailing sentiment in this market suggests a strong expectation for a specific outcome. It’s interesting to compare this to external forecasts from financial analysts. While analyst predictions vary, they often focus on factors like interest rate differentials, oil prices, and global economic conditions. This market offers a different perspective, reflecting the wisdom of the crowd and incorporating a broader range of information. Discrepancies between prediction market probabilities and analyst forecasts can highlight areas of disagreement or uncertainty regarding the future direction of the USD/NOK exchange rate.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether the USD/NOK exchange rate will be up or down on Oct 12, 2026. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price adjusts dynamically based on supply and demand, meaning that increased buying pressure on the 'Up' side will raise its price, and vice versa. This creates a real-time assessment of market sentiment regarding the exchange rate’s future movement.

This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official exchange rate between the US Dollar and the Norwegian Krone at a specific time on that date. This market will determine whether the exchange rate is higher or lower than its value at the start of the market. The final price of shares will reflect the actual outcome, allowing traders to realize their gains or losses based on the accuracy of their predictions.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 12, 2026. Major economic data releases from both the United States and Norway, such as inflation reports, GDP figures, and employment numbers, are key catalysts. Unexpected shifts in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve or Norges Bank could also trigger substantial price movements. Geopolitical events and fluctuations in global oil prices, given Norway’s position as a major oil producer, are additional factors to watch. Any news that alters the perceived economic outlook for either country has the potential to shift sentiment and impact the price of shares in this market.