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US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on October 5?
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US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on October 5?

Volume:
$10

US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on October 5?

 - Polymarket

US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on October 5? - Polymarket

1W

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Negative

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·

Resolved Oct 5, 2026

Closed: Oct 5, 7:01 PM EST

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US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on October 5?

View
0%
99%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) on October 5, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including October 5, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on October 5, 2026, or if October 5, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FMXN. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) on October 5, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including October 5, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on October 5, 2026, or if October 5, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FMXN. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may base their predictions on economic models and geopolitical factors, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a diverse range of informed opinions. Discrepancies can arise from differing interpretations of data or the inclusion of factors not typically considered in standard analysis. It's important to note that prediction markets are forward-looking, attempting to anticipate events, while analyst forecasts are often snapshots in time. This market provides a unique data point alongside those traditional forecasts.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether the USD/MXN exchange rate will be up or down on Oct 5, 2026. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price adjusts dynamically based on supply and demand, meaning that as more people believe the exchange rate will rise, the price of 'up' shares increases, and vice versa. This creates a real-time assessment of market sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official exchange rate reported by a widely recognized financial data provider at the specified time. The direction of change—whether the USD/MXN exchange rate is higher or lower than its value at the market’s launch—will determine which outcome is considered correct. Traders holding shares in the winning outcome will receive a payout, while those holding shares in the losing outcome will forfeit their investment.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 5, 2026. Major economic data releases from both the United States and Mexico, such as inflation reports, employment figures, and GDP growth data, are key catalysts. Unexpected political developments in either country, including policy changes or shifts in government leadership, could also impact the exchange rate. Geopolitical events and global risk sentiment can also play a role, as the USD/MXN exchange rate is sensitive to changes in investor confidence. Shifts in oil prices, given Mexico’s role as an oil exporter, could also move this market.