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US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on October 26?
polymarket

US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on October 26?

Volume:
$20

US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on October 26?

 - Polymarket

US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on October 26? - Polymarket

1W

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·

Resolved Oct 26, 2026

Closed: Oct 26, 10:08 PM EST

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US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on October 26?

View
0%
99%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) on October 26, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including October 26, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on October 26, 2026, or if October 26, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FMXN. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) on October 26, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including October 26, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on October 26, 2026, or if October 26, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FMXN. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for this market tracks the current implied probability of the USD/MXN exchange rate increasing or decreasing by October 26. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, the trading volume over the past 24 hours – currently $20 – and the total volume traded to date, which is $20. This allows you to quickly assess market sentiment and how actively traders are participating in predicting the future direction of the exchange rate. The dashboard updates in real-time as new trades are placed.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for the USD/MXN exchange rate. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, expressing the probability of an increase or decrease. This provides a different kind of signal, reflecting the collective belief of traders actively putting capital at risk. It’s important to note that analyst forecasts can vary widely, and this market represents a real-time, financially incentivized prediction.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism. Traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether the USD/MXN exchange rate will be higher or lower on Oct 26, 2026. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of that outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price adjusts dynamically based on supply and demand, meaning that as more people bet on one outcome, the price of shares representing that outcome will increase, and vice versa. This creates a constantly updating forecast.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the official closing exchange rate for the USD/MXN pair on that date. The market will determine whether the exchange rate is higher or lower than its value at the market’s launch. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies based on the verified result.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 26, 2026. Major economic data releases from both the United States and Mexico, such as inflation reports, employment figures, and GDP growth, are key catalysts. Unexpected policy announcements from the Federal Reserve or Banco de México could also trigger substantial price movements. Geopolitical events and shifts in global risk sentiment can also affect currency valuations, influencing trading activity in this market. Monitoring these signals will be crucial for understanding potential shifts in the predicted outcome.