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US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on October 19?
polymarket

US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on October 19?

Volume:
$20

US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on October 19?

 - Polymarket

US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on October 19? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

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Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 7:54 PM EST

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US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on October 19?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) on October 19, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including October 19, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on October 19, 2026, or if October 19, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FMXN. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) on October 19, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including October 19, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on October 19, 2026, or if October 19, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FMXN. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for this market tracks the current implied probability of the USD/MXN exchange rate increasing or decreasing by October 19. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the total volume traded—currently $20—and the 24-hour volume, which is $20. This allows you to see how traders are positioning themselves and how sentiment is shifting as we approach the resolution date. The dashboard provides a real-time view of the market's activity and can help inform your own predictions.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may offer specific targets for the USD/MXN exchange rate, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, representing a broader range of opinions and potential outcomes. It’s common to see discrepancies, as prediction markets can incorporate information and react to events more quickly than traditional analysis. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market sentiment and potential surprises leading up to Oct 19, 2026.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether the USD/MXN exchange rate will be up or down on October 19. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price adjusts to reflect the collective assessment of the market. This dynamic pricing allows for a real-time assessment of expectations, influenced by news, economic data, and global events.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the official closing exchange rate for the USD/MXN pair on that date. The direction of change (up or down) will be determined by comparing this closing rate to the rate on the day prior to the market’s creation. This ensures a clear and objective determination of the outcome based on established financial data.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 19, 2026. Major economic data releases from both the United States and Mexico, such as inflation reports, employment figures, and GDP growth, are key catalysts. Unexpected political developments in either country, shifts in global risk sentiment, or changes in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve or Banco de México could also drive substantial movement. Geopolitical events and fluctuations in oil prices, given Mexico's role as an oil producer, could also impact the USD/MXN exchange rate and, consequently, this market.