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US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on October 12?
polymarket

US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on October 12?

Volume:
$30

US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on October 12?

 - Polymarket

US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on October 12? - Polymarket

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Resolved Oct 12, 2026

Closed: Oct 12, 9:16 PM EST

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US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on October 12?

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$30
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
No
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) on October 12, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including October 12, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on October 12, 2026, or if October 12, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FMXN. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) on October 12, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including October 12, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on October 12, 2026, or if October 12, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FMXN. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for this market tracks the current implied probability of the USD/MXN exchange rate increasing or decreasing by October 12. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the trading volume over the past 24 hours, currently at $30. The total volume traded on this market is $30. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and participation regarding the future direction of the exchange rate. The dashboard updates in real-time as new trades are placed on Polymarket.

Currently, prediction market participants on Polymarket are strongly indicating a specific outcome for the USD/MXN exchange rate. It's interesting to compare this to what financial analysts are predicting. While analyst forecasts vary, they often consider factors like interest rate differentials, economic growth projections, and geopolitical risks. This market provides a different perspective, reflecting the collective wisdom of traders willing to put capital behind their beliefs. Discrepancies between the two can highlight areas where the market anticipates different outcomes than traditional forecasts.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether the USD/MXN exchange rate will be up or down on October 12. The price of these shares directly reflects the probability of that outcome, as perceived by the market. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe the exchange rate will move in a particular direction, the higher the price of shares representing that outcome will climb, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures the market reflects the latest information and sentiment.

This market resolves around Oct 12, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official exchange rate reported for the USD/MXN pair on that date. The market will determine whether the exchange rate has moved up or down from its value at the start of the market’s trading period. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies based on the verified result. The final outcome will be publicly available on Polymarket.

Several factors could significantly impact the price action in this market before Oct 12, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases from either the United States or Mexico, such as inflation reports or GDP figures, could trigger shifts in market sentiment. Geopolitical events, including trade negotiations or political instability in either country, could also play a role. Furthermore, changes in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve or Banco de México, like interest rate adjustments, are likely to influence the USD/MXN exchange rate and, consequently, trading activity in this market.