TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$235,918,089

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,884,820,873

413,109

Markets across

40,428

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,364

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on November 2?
polymarket

US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on November 2?

Oct 30, 2026, 8:01 AM EST - Nov 2, 2026, 5:00 PM EST
Total volume:
$5
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
$1,958
1,957,823%
Open interest:
$5N/A

US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on November 2?

 - Polymarket

US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on November 2? - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 2, 2026

US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on November 2?

0%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 0.1¢ buys you 100,000 shares | Odds: 0% Total Payout: $100,000 | Net Profit: $99,900 Multiplier: 1000.00x | ROI: 99,900% | APY: N/A
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) Up or Down on November 2?

Trade
0%
50%
Yes 0.1¢No 100¢
—
$1,958
$5
0%
N/A
N/A
0d 0h 0m
Disputed
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) on November 2, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including November 2, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on November 2, 2026, or if November 2, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FMXN. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) on November 2, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including November 2, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on November 2, 2026, or if November 2, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Mexican Peso (USD/MXN) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FMXN. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for this market tracks the current implied probability of the USD/MXN exchange rate increasing or decreasing by November 2. You’ll find a real-time view of the odds, along with the trading volume over the past 24 hours, currently at $5. The total volume traded on this market is $5. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and potential price movements related to the USD/MXN exchange rate, providing a dynamic overview of expectations.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a different perspective than many traditional analyst forecasts for the USD/MXN exchange rate. While some analysts predict a continued strengthening of the US dollar against the Mexican peso, this market indicates a more nuanced expectation. It’s important to remember that prediction markets aggregate the wisdom of the crowd, potentially incorporating information and perspectives not fully captured in standard financial models. This can lead to divergences in outlook, providing a valuable alternative data point for evaluating potential outcomes.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether the USD/MXN exchange rate will be higher or lower on Nov 2, 2026. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market’s price movements are driven by supply and demand, influenced by news events, economic data releases, and overall market sentiment surrounding the two currencies. This dynamic pricing allows for a real-time assessment of expectations.

This market resolves around Nov 2, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on the official exchange rate of the USD/MXN as reported by a widely recognized financial data provider at a specified time on that date. The market will determine whether the exchange rate has increased or decreased relative to its value at the market’s launch, based on this publicly available data. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final outcome.

Several key signals and events could significantly influence this market before Nov 2, 2026. Unexpected economic data releases from either the United States or Mexico, such as inflation reports or employment figures, could trigger shifts in the USD/MXN exchange rate. Geopolitical events, changes in monetary policy by the Federal Reserve or Banco de México, and fluctuations in global risk sentiment are also likely to play a role. Any significant news impacting either economy or investor confidence could lead to substantial movement in this market.