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US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Up or Down on October 19?
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US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Up or Down on October 19?

Volume:
$20

US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Up or Down on October 19?

 - Polymarket

US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Up or Down on October 19? - Polymarket

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Resolved Oct 19, 2026

Closed: Oct 19, 9:11 PM EST

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US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) Up or Down on October 19?

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$20
N/A
N/A
N/A
Settled
Yes
Total markets: 1

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) on October 19, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including October 19, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on October 19, 2026, or if October 19, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FJPY. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) on October 19, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including October 19, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on October 19, 2026, or if October 19, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FJPY. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for this market tracks the current implied probability of the USD/JPY exchange rate increasing or decreasing by October 19. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the trading volume over the past 24 hours, currently at $20. The overall volume traded in this market is $20. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and participation levels regarding the future direction of the exchange rate. The dashboard updates continuously to reflect the latest trading activity.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional analyst forecasts for the USD/JPY exchange rate. While analysts often provide point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates the wisdom of the crowd, expressing the probability of an increase or decrease. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, biases, or access to information. Examining these differences can provide valuable insights into market expectations and potential blind spots in conventional analysis. It's important to note that prediction markets represent a forward-looking view, reflecting expectations up to the resolution date.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether the USD/JPY exchange rate will be up or down on October 19. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of each outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more shares bought for one outcome, the higher its price rises, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing ensures that the market odds continuously adapt to new information and changing sentiment among traders. The current price reflects the collective assessment of all participants.

This market resolves around Oct 19, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will track whether the USD/JPY exchange rate is higher or lower at the designated close time on that date compared to its value at the start of the day. The final exchange rate will be sourced from a widely recognized financial data provider to ensure accuracy and transparency. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the outcome.

Several key signals and events could significantly influence this market before Oct 19, 2026. Major macroeconomic data releases from both the United States and Japan, such as inflation reports, employment figures, and GDP growth data, are likely to impact the USD/JPY exchange rate. Unexpected policy announcements from the Federal Reserve or the Bank of Japan regarding interest rates or quantitative easing could also trigger substantial price movements. Geopolitical events and shifts in global risk sentiment can also play a role, as the Japanese Yen is often seen as a safe-haven currency.