This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for the US Dollar Index (DXY) on October 26, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the US Dollar Index (DXY) on the most recent prior trading day. This market will resolve to "Down" if the reference price for the US Dollar Index (DXY) on October 26, 2026 is lower than the reference price for the US Dollar Index (DXY) on the most recent prior trading day. For each trading day, the reference price refers to the Pyth "Close" value of the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (closing at 5:00 PM ET) on that date. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its most recent reference price, unless Friday were not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule, in which case it would refer to the next most recent prior trading day. If the two specified reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. If the US Dollar Index (DXY) does not trade at all during the relevant trading session, this market will resolve 50-50. Trading days will be determined according to the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth. Under the standard schedule (time zone America/New_York), trading is open continuously from 5:00:00 PM ET Sunday through 5:00:00 PM ET Friday, with no daily settlement break, except where modified by holiday or special-session hours as listed on Pyth. If a listed date is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. Under the standard New York 5:00 PM FX close convention, each trading day begins at 5:00 PM ET on the preceding calendar day and ends at 5:00 PM ET on that calendar day. If either of the relevant days has no valid Pyth "Close" value for the 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (closing at 5:00 PM ET), the market will use the last valid Pyth price achieved prior to 4:59 PM ET during that trading day as the effective reference price. If no valid Pyth price exists for that trading day due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption, the reference price for that day may be determined using the official settlement value for the spot U.S. Dollar Index for that trading day, as published by ICE Futures U.S. in its "Futures Daily Market Report for US Dollar Index" dated as of that trading day. This report may be accessed by selecting "End of Day Report" under the "Reports" tab of the product page at https://www.ice.com/products/194/US-Dollar-Index-Futures. The relevant value is the one shown in the "Settle Price" column for the row with Commodity Name "DX" and Contract Month "SPOT". If no such spot settlement value is published for that trading day, the "Settle Price" value shown in the same report for the most actively traded (by open interest) ICE U.S. Dollar Index futures contract month (ticker DX) may be used instead. Only prices achieved during the applicable trading session will be considered. In the event of an index methodology change, feed change, or similar structural modification affecting the market during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on adjusted prices as displayed on Pyth. The resolution source for this market will be Pyth, specifically the "Close" values for the relevant 1-minute candles available at https://app.pyth.com/explore/FX.USDXY. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the DXY direction market tracks the current odds of the US Dollar Index (DXY) increasing or decreasing in value by October 26. You’ll find a real-time view of the implied probabilities, allowing you to see how traders are assessing the likelihood of each outcome. The dashboard also displays the total volume traded in this market, currently at $10, and the 24-hour volume, which is $10. This provides a snapshot of market activity and interest in the DXY’s future direction.

Currently, prediction market odds reflect a collective assessment of the DXY’s potential movement, often differing from traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may provide point estimates or ranges, this market aggregates the views of numerous traders, creating a dynamic probability distribution. It’s common to see discrepancies between the two, as prediction markets can incorporate a wider range of information and react more quickly to new developments. Examining these differences can offer valuable insights into market sentiment and the potential for unexpected outcomes regarding the DXY.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where participants buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether the DXY will be up or down on October 26. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, directly reflecting the collective probability assigned to each outcome. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the market price converges towards a consensus view, offering a real-time estimate of the DXY’s likely direction. The current volume traded indicates the level of interest and confidence in these predictions.

This market resolves around Oct 26, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official closing price of the US Dollar Index (DXY) on October 26. If the closing price is higher than its value at the start of the day, the 'Up' outcome will prevail; otherwise, the 'Down' outcome will be considered the result. This provides a clear and objective determination of whether the DXY increased or decreased in value during the specified period.

Several key signals and events could significantly influence this market leading up to Oct 26, 2026. Major economic data releases, such as US inflation reports, employment figures, and GDP growth, are likely to impact the DXY. Unexpected announcements from the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy, including interest rate decisions or quantitative easing measures, could also trigger substantial price movements. Geopolitical events and shifts in global risk sentiment can also play a role, as the DXY often acts as a safe-haven currency during times of uncertainty.

US Dollar Index (DXY) Up or Down on October 26?

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