TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

Markets across

40,408

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

BETA
Dashboards
Insights
Indices
API
Tour
All
Trending
Breaking
New
Ending Soon
Politics
Sports
Elections
Crypto
Companies
Financials
Economics
Other
Entertainment
Science and Technology
US Dollar / Brazilian Real (USD/BRL) Up or Down on October 5?
polymarket

US Dollar / Brazilian Real (USD/BRL) Up or Down on October 5?

Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result

Description

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Brazilian Real (USD/BRL) on October 5, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Brazilian Real (USD/BRL), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including October 5, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on October 5, 2026, or if October 5, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Brazilian Real (USD/BRL) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FBRL. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Polymarket

This market will resolve to "Up" if the reference price for US Dollar / Brazilian Real (USD/BRL) on October 5, 2026 is higher than the reference price for the most recent prior reference day. This market will resolve to "Down" if it is lower. If the two reference prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. For each day, the reference price is the "Close" value of the Pyth 1-minute candle timestamped 4:59 PM ET (covering 4:59:00–4:59:59 PM ET) on that date. Reference prices will be used exactly as published by Pyth, without rounding. A "reference day" is any day on which the applicable trading session for US Dollar / Brazilian Real (USD/BRL), per the trading-hours schedule listed on Pyth, includes 4:59 PM ET. E.g., ordinarily, a market on Monday would refer to the previous Friday for its reference price, since weekend sessions (where applicable) do not include a 4:59 PM ET close; if that Friday were a market holiday, it would refer to the next most recent prior reference day. All times are Eastern Time, and each day refers to the Eastern Time calendar date. If no valid Pyth Close value exists for the 4:59 PM ET 1-minute candle on any day for which a reference price is being determined — including October 5, 2026 itself, such as on a day with shortened trading hours — the last valid Pyth price published prior to 5:00 PM ET on that date will be used as that day's reference price. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on the prior reference day — due to a system outage, data failure, or other technical disruption — the next most recent prior reference day on which a valid Pyth price was published will be used in its place. If no valid Pyth price is published at all on October 5, 2026, or if October 5, 2026 is not a trading day under the applicable trading-hours schedule as listed on Pyth, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Pyth, specifically the "Close" value of the relevant 1-minute candle for US Dollar / Brazilian Real (USD/BRL) available at https://pythdata.app/explore/FX.USD%2FBRL. Historical 1-minute candles may be accessed by appending a Unix timestamp (seconds) to the Pyth chart URL using the "t=" parameter.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for this market tracks the current implied probability of the USD/BRL exchange rate being higher or lower on Oct 5, 2026. You’ll find a visual representation of the odds, along with the total volume traded, currently at $30, and the 24-hour volume, which is $30. This allows traders to quickly assess market sentiment and trading activity related to the future direction of this exchange rate. The dashboard provides a clear overview of how the market is pricing the potential outcome.

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional analyst forecasts. While analysts may base their predictions on economic models and fundamental analysis, this market represents the collective wisdom of traders who are putting their capital at risk. If analysts are largely predicting the USD/BRL exchange rate will move in one direction, but the market odds suggest otherwise, it could indicate disagreement or the market factoring in information not yet reflected in conventional forecasts. It’s a valuable comparison point for understanding diverse viewpoints.

This market resolves around Oct 5, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official exchange rate reported by a widely recognized financial data provider at a specified time on that date. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their shares align with the final direction of the USD/BRL exchange rate. The platform will verify the outcome against these sources to ensure accurate settlement of the market.

Several factors could significantly influence this market before Oct 5, 2026. Major economic data releases from both the United States and Brazil, such as inflation reports, GDP growth figures, and employment numbers, are likely to cause volatility. Unexpected political developments in either country, including policy changes or shifts in government leadership, could also impact the USD/BRL exchange rate. Furthermore, global risk sentiment and fluctuations in commodity prices, particularly oil, can play a role in shaping market expectations and moving the odds.