TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.4b

24H VOL:

$245,801,863

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,902,097,102

417,059

Markets across

40,178

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,415

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Urban Outfitters Credit Card Spend in September
kalshi

What will Urban Outfitters' credit card spend be in September?

Volume:
$51,520

Above 99

 - Kalshi

Above 99 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 5, 2026

Closed: Oct 5, 12:55 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

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Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 99

View
100%
2%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$9,546
N/A
N/A
$5,486
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 103

View
100%
68%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$7,322
N/A
N/A
$5,448
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 97

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6,152
N/A
N/A
$5,272
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 101

View
100%
71%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,765
N/A
N/A
$3,314
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 94

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,249
N/A
N/A
$4,419
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 90

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,765
N/A
N/A
$3,112
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 106

View
0%
12%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$6,680
N/A
N/A
$3,582
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 110

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,039
N/A
N/A
$1,862
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 115

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,002
N/A
N/A
$1,502
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Description

These markets assess Urban Outfitters' credit card spend performance for September 2026 against various growth thresholds compared to the same month in the prior year. The outcomes depend on year-over-year changes measured by Carbon Arc's aggregated U.S. credit and debit card transaction data.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the Carbon Arc Urban Outfitters Credit Card Spend index for September 2026, comparing it to the same month in the prior year. The index, where 100 represents equal year-over-year spend, uses aggregated U.S. credit and debit card transaction data updated daily. Each market has a specific threshold: if the reported index exceeds the threshold (90, 94, 97, 99, 101, 103, 106, 110, or 115), that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. The first value reported by Carbon Arc is used for determination, and any subsequent corrections or revisions after settlement do not affect the outcome. Kalshi is not affiliated with Urban Outfitters, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

Compared to analyst forecasts, prediction market odds for this market often reflect a more nuanced view that incorporates real-time sentiment and trading activity. While analysts may provide a single estimate or range, traders continuously adjust positions based on new data, news, and market dynamics, which can lead to differences in implied probabilities versus consensus forecasts.

This market resolves around Oct 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final determination will be based on officially released financial data for Urban Outfitters' credit card spend in September, ensuring an objective and transparent resolution process.

Key signals that could move this market include Urban Outfitters' quarterly earnings reports, consumer spending data releases, changes in credit card transaction trends, macroeconomic indicators affecting retail sales, and any major announcements from the company regarding sales performance or credit card program changes. These factors may cause traders to adjust their positions, impacting the market odds.