TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$228,458,490

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,879,276,037

410,833

Markets across

40,345

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,363

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Ulta Credit Card Spend in September
kalshi

What will be the Ulta Credit Card Spend index in September?

Volume:
$33,047

Above 102

 - Kalshi

Above 102 - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 5, 2026

Closed: Oct 5, 12:54 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

Above 102

View
100%
92%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$6,097
N/A
N/A
$2,545
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 94

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$5,174
N/A
N/A
$3,224
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 100

View
100%
81%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$4,097
N/A
N/A
$2,798
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 90

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,445
N/A
N/A
$3,372
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 96

View
100%
1%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$3,217
N/A
N/A
$3,022
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 98

View
100%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$2,707
N/A
N/A
$2,238
Settled
Yes
kalshi

Above 110

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$3,772
N/A
N/A
$3,368
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 104

View
0%
8%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,536
N/A
N/A
$2,046
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 106

View
0%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$2,002
N/A
N/A
$1,440
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Description

These markets track projected credit card spending trends at Ulta for September 2026, using a year-over-year index where 100 represents equal spending compared to the same month in the previous year. Higher index values indicate increased spending growth relative to the prior year, with each market setting a different threshold for resolving outcomes.

Kalshi

All markets resolve based on the Carbon Arc Ulta Credit Card Spend index for September 2026, comparing it against specific numerical thresholds ranging from 90 to 110. The index reflects year-over-year changes in U.S. credit and debit card transactions at Ulta, with values above 100 indicating growth and below 100 indicating decline. Settlement relies on the first value reported by Carbon Arc for September 2026, and any subsequent corrections or revisions after settlement will not alter the outcome. The index is derived from Carbon Arc’s aggregated transaction panel, updated daily, and matched to the same period of the prior year. Kalshi explicitly disclaims any affiliation with Ulta or Carbon Arc, and all trademarks remain the property of their respective owners.

Frequently asked questions

The dashboard for the Ulta credit card spend market shows real-time odds, price history, and 24-hour volume on Kalshi. It provides a snapshot of trader sentiment and market activity for this specific prediction, allowing users to monitor how expectations for Ulta's credit card spending evolve over time. With a total volume of $33,047 and a 24-hour volume of $19,881, it reflects the level of interest and engagement among participants on Kalshi.

This market resolves around Oct 14, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final determination will rely on officially released financial data and publicly accessible records, ensuring an objective and transparent resolution process for all participants on Kalshi.

Several signals could shift this market before it settles. Key catalysts include Ulta’s quarterly earnings announcements, changes in consumer spending behavior, economic indicators affecting retail sales, and any major promotions or discounts offered by Ulta that could boost credit card usage. Media coverage of consumer trends and investor sentiment around retail stocks may also influence trader activity and shift odds on Kalshi as resolution approaches.