TOTAL VOLUME:

$154.3b

24H VOL:

$219,029,434

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,028,936

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,869,293,526

411,051

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40,408

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MATCHED EVENTS:

4,377

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

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63%

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TX-35 House Election Winner
⌛Ending Soon
opinion

Who will win the TX-35 House election?

Oct 19, 2026, 10:22 PM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$0
Volume 24h:
N/AN/A
Liquidity:
N/AN/A
Open interest:
N/AN/A

Carlos De La Cruz (R)

 - Opinion

Carlos De La Cruz (R) - Opinion

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 01d:08h:37m

Carlos De La Cruz (R)

30%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
opinion

Trade on Opinion

At 30¢ buys you 333 shares | Odds: 0% Total Payout: $333 | Net Profit: $233 Multiplier: 3.33x | ROI: 233% APY not meaningful
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
opinion

Carlos De La Cruz (R)

Trade
N/A
N/A
6¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 8h 37m
Active
opinion

Johnny Garcia (D)

Trade
N/A
N/A
5¢
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
1d 8h 37m
Active
Total markets: 2

Description

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-35 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Opinion

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the TX-35 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Frequently asked questions

Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls aim to capture a snapshot of current voter intentions, this market aggregates the informed opinions of individuals with skin in the game. Discrepancies can arise due to factors like poll weighting, sampling bias, and the ability of market participants to incorporate a wider range of information, including fundraising data, candidate performance, and broader political trends. It's common to see this market adjust more rapidly to new information than polls, offering a potentially more dynamic forecast.

On Opinion, this market is priced through a continuous order book where traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief in each candidate's probability of winning. The price of a contract reflects the collective assessment of all participants. On Opinion, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more traders believe a candidate will win, the higher the price of their contract will climb. Conversely, if confidence wanes, the price will decrease. This dynamic pricing mechanism creates a real-time forecast of the election outcome, driven by the wisdom of the crowd.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on the official results announced by election authorities for the TX-35 House election. The candidate who receives the most votes will be declared the winner, and that will determine the settlement of this market. The process ensures a clear and objective determination of the outcome, relying on established electoral procedures and publicly available data.

Several factors could significantly influence this market between now and Nov 4, 2026. Major campaign events, such as debates or rallies, could shift voter sentiment and impact the perceived chances of each candidate. Unexpected endorsements from prominent figures or organizations could also trigger price movements. Furthermore, significant news stories related to the candidates' platforms, personal lives, or potential scandals could introduce volatility. Finally, changes in national political trends or economic conditions could indirectly affect the race, causing traders to reassess their forecasts.