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TX-23 House Election Margin of Victory
Republican 0-3%
- Polymarket
Republican 0-3% - Polymarket
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Resolves Nov 3, 2026
Time left: 01d:07h:02m
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-23 House election by 0%-3%?
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Description
The 2026 TX-23 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 TX-23 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Polymarket
The 2026 TX-23 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 TX-23 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, this market reflects a stronger expectation for a decisive outcome than many public polls suggest. While surveys may show a tighter race, trader sentiment priced at around 20.5% indicates confidence in a clear win for one side. Such gaps often emerge when market participants weigh factors beyond recent polls, such as fundraising strength or historical trends in the district.
On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. On Polymarket, traders continuously adjust probabilities based on new information, news, and campaign performance. The current top outcome holds a chance of 20.5%, with liquidity reflecting active betting. Price shifts here are driven purely by participant sentiment and betting volume on that venue, not by external data feeds.
This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the election results are verifiable from credible public reporting. The final margin will be calculated from official vote tallies, and the market will settle based on whether it meets the predefined threshold for this contest.
Polls, candidate debates, and local economic data releases could shift this market as the election approaches. Media coverage of scandals or policy positions may also influence trader sentiment. As Nov 4, 2026 nears, voting early indicators and turnout forecasts might cause rapid price swings. Any major unexpected events, like endorsements or campaign finance developments, can dramatically alter the odds on this market.
