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24H VOL:

$290,393,159

24H TRANSACTIONS:

2,984,640,614

OPEN INTEREST:

$1,944,100,805

420,493

Markets across

40,511

events

MATCHED EVENTS:

4,612

PLATFORM COVERAGE:

5

Polymarket:

37%

VS.

Kalshi:

63%

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Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 3, 2026?
kalshi

Trump's RCP approval average on Oct 3, 2026?

Volume:
$364,906

38.2%

 - Kalshi

38.2% - Kalshi

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolved Oct 3, 2026

Closed: Oct 3, 12:59 PM EST

kalshi

Kalshi

View
Join Kalshi and score $25 for your first trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
kalshi

38.2%

View
100%
23%
Yes 100¢No 0¢
—
N/A
$67,016
N/A
N/A
$32,774
Settled
Yes
kalshi

38.1%

View
0%
10%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$72,292
N/A
N/A
$32,713
Settled
No
kalshi

Above 38.6%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$50,474
N/A
N/A
$27,383
Settled
No
kalshi

38.3%

View
0%
3%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$48,718
N/A
N/A
$27,475
Settled
No
kalshi

Below 38.0%

View
0%
6%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$46,988
N/A
N/A
$27,257
Settled
No
kalshi

38.0%

View
0%
5%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$34,770
N/A
N/A
$19,683
Settled
No
kalshi

38.6%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$26,141
N/A
N/A
$12,051
Settled
No
kalshi

38.4%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$10,894
N/A
N/A
$8,628
Settled
No
kalshi

38.5%

View
0%
1%
Yes 0¢No 100¢
—
N/A
$7,613
N/A
N/A
$6,305
Settled
No
Total markets: 9

Description

This event tracks President Trump's public support as measured by a specific polling average on a set date and time. The outcome depends on where his approval rating falls within a narrow range, reflecting the precision of polling data and public sentiment at that moment.

Kalshi

The event resolves based on President Trump’s RealClearPolitics (RCP) approval average at exactly 1:00 PM ET on October 3, 2026. The RCP Average value listed under the "Approve" column in the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" serves as the exclusive data source. Specific numerical thresholds determine the resolution: if the average is below 38.0%, exactly 38.0% through 38.6%, or above 38.6%, the respective markets will resolve accordingly. Each defined percentage point or range constitutes a distinct outcome, ensuring precise alignment with the polling data captured at the specified time.