TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$323,326,361
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,969,435,260
419,363
Markets across
40,411
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,612
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 12, 12:59 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks President Trump's public support as measured by the RealClearPolitics (RCP) average on a specific future date. The outcome depends solely on the precise percentage recorded at a set time, with various thresholds determining success. It reflects how public opinion polling aggregates can be used to gauge political sentiment at a moment in time.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on the exact RealClearPolitics (RCP) average approval percentage for President Trump at precisely 1:00 PM ET on October 12, 2026. The sole data source is the 'Approve' column value from the 'RCP Average' row in the table titled 'President Trump Job Approval.' Nine distinct primary rules cover all possible outcomes: if the average is below 37.5%, exactly 37.5% through 38.1%, or above 38.1%, the corresponding market resolves to Yes. Each rule specifies an exact numerical threshold or range, ensuring every possible value of the RCP average on that date falls under one and only one resolving condition. No discretion or interpretation is permitted — the market outcome is mechanically determined by comparing the published percentage against these predefined values at the exact designated time and source.
