TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 9, 11:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the public sentiment toward the President by measuring their approval rating on a specific future date. It reflects how public opinion polls gauge the effectiveness and popularity of political leadership at a particular moment in time. The outcome depends on where the measured approval percentage falls within defined ranges.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on the President’s approval rating as reported by RealClearPolitics at 11:00 AM ET on October 09, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific numerical range of approval percentages. If the reported rating falls within a market’s defined range at the exact determination time, that market resolves to Yes; all others resolve to No. The ranges are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive, covering every possible approval rating outcome from below 37.6% up to above 39.3%. All markets use the same timing and data source, ensuring consistent evaluation across all outcomes.
Frequently asked questions
Generally, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. Polling reflects stated preferences at a single point in time, while this market represents a continuously updated assessment of probabilities based on traders’ willingness to put capital at risk. If polls show a significant lead for a particular outcome, this market might still reflect uncertainty if traders believe external factors could shift public opinion. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and the incentives of those providing information – poll respondents may be subject to social desirability bias, while prediction market traders have a financial incentive to be accurate.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential approval rating ranges. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective probability assessment of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly, providing a dynamic and real-time forecast. Traders are essentially betting on their belief of what the final approval rating will be, and the market price reflects the aggregated wisdom of the crowd. The current trading volume indicates the level of interest and conviction surrounding different potential outcomes.
This market resolves around Oct 9, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final approval rating will be determined by averaging results from several well-respected and publicly available polls conducted close to the resolution date. These polls will be weighted based on their historical accuracy and methodological rigor. The specific range containing the verified average approval rating will determine the winning contracts in this market. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings based on the final outcome.
