TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 30, 11:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the public's perception of a political leader by measuring their approval rating at a specific future date. It reflects how public opinion polls are used to gauge support levels for elected officials. The outcome depends entirely on the numerical rating recorded by a designated polling source at the predetermined time.
Kalshi
All markets resolve based solely on the President’s approval rating as reported by RealClearPolitics at exactly 11:00 AM ET on October 30, 2026. Each market corresponds to a distinct numerical range: below 37.7%, between 37.7%–37.9%, 38.0%–38.2%, 38.3%–38.5%, 38.6%–38.8%, 38.9%–39.1%, 39.2%–39.4%, or above 39.4%. The market labeled for the relevant range resolves to 'Yes,' with all others resolving to 'No.' No other factors, interpretations, or adjustments affect the outcome.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling averages regarding former President Trump’s approval rating. Polls capture a snapshot in time, while this market reflects a continuous assessment of probabilities leading up to Oct 30, 2026. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies, incentives, and the ability of market participants to incorporate a wider range of information. It’s important to consider both sources when forming an overall assessment, as each provides unique insights into public sentiment and potential outcomes.
On Kalshi, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome. The price of a contract directly corresponds to the probability of that outcome occurring. As more traders participate, the price converges toward a collective assessment of the likelihood. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Market participants are incentivized to provide accurate predictions, as profitable trades depend on correctly anticipating the final result.
This market resolves around Oct 30, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final price will reflect the actual approval rating of former President Trump on that date, as reported by a reputable and widely-recognized polling organization. The specific methodology used to determine the final approval rating will be based on standard polling practices and will be assessed for accuracy and reliability. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their contracts predicted the correct outcome.
Several signals and events could significantly influence this market between now and Oct 30, 2026. Major political developments, such as significant legislative actions, economic shifts, or unforeseen international events, could all impact public perception of former President Trump. His public appearances, statements, and any potential legal proceedings will also be closely watched. Unexpected endorsements or controversies could also cause volatility in this market, as traders adjust their predictions based on new information and changing circumstances.
