TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$277,138,640
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,905,404,943
412,077
Markets across
39,838
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,526
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 23, 11:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the public sentiment toward the President by measuring their approval rating on a specific future date. It reflects how public opinion might shift over time based on political events, policies, and broader socio-economic conditions. The outcome depends solely on the numerical rating reported by a designated polling source at a set time.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on the President’s approval rating as reported by RealClearPolitics at 11:00 AM ET on October 23, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific numerical range of the approval rating, and the market resolves to 'Yes' if the rating falls within its defined range at the specified determination time. The ranges are structured to cover all possible outcomes—from ratings below 37.8% to those exceeding 39.5%—ensuring that exactly one market will resolve as 'Yes' and all others as 'No'. Determination occurs solely at the stated time and source, with no extensions or adjustments.
Frequently asked questions
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential approval rating ranges. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective probability assessment of that range being correct. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly, providing a real-time indication of market sentiment. The current volume suggests active engagement, and the price movements demonstrate how traders are responding to news and events related to former President Trump and the political landscape.
This market resolves around Oct 23, 2026, with the outcome determined by the average approval rating of Donald Trump as reported by RealClearPolitics on that date. The final value will be verified against credible public sources to ensure accuracy. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their chosen contract corresponds to the actual approval rating range. This allows participants to express their views on the future political climate and potentially profit from accurately forecasting public opinion as measured by a widely-recognized polling aggregator.
Several factors could significantly influence this market between now and Oct 23, 2026. Major economic developments, significant political endorsements, unexpected policy announcements, or any substantial shifts in the political landscape could all cause traders to reassess their probabilities. Any controversies or scandals involving former President Trump, or key figures in the political arena, could also lead to price fluctuations. Furthermore, the release of prominent polls or analyses could impact market sentiment, as traders incorporate this new information into their forecasts. Monitoring these events will be crucial for understanding the dynamics of this market.
