TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$235,918,089
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,884,820,873
413,109
Markets across
40,428
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,364
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 11, 1:45 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
Donald Trump's activity on Truth Social can indicate his communication style and engagement with supporters. Monitoring his posts over a specific week provides insight into his digital presence and how frequently he interacts with his audience through this platform.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on the total number of Truth Social posts made by Donald Trump between October 4, 2026, and October 10, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific range of posts, from below 80 to above 240. All types of posts—Truths, ReTruths, Quote Truths, and Replies—are counted if captured by Roll Call. Deleted posts as of the expiration time are excluded. Roll Call is the primary source for data, with alternative sources used if necessary. The observation period runs from 12:00 AM ET on October 4 to 11:59 PM ET on October 10, and all ranges are inclusive of their bounds.
Frequently asked questions
Generally, prediction market odds often provide a different perspective than traditional polls. Polls capture stated preferences, while this market reflects what people are willing to put their money on. Historically, prediction markets have sometimes been more accurate than polls in forecasting political and economic events. However, it's important to remember that both have limitations. Polls can be affected by sampling bias and question wording, while this market is influenced by the information available to traders and their interpretations of it. Currently, it's difficult to directly compare to polling averages as the event is in the future.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning buyers and sellers set the odds by placing bids and asks. The price reflects the probability of a particular outcome occurring, with higher prices indicating a lower probability and vice versa. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information and their expectations, which leads to dynamic price movements. The current top outcome, as indicated by the highest price, is for Donald Trump to make between 220 and 240 Truth Social posts during the specified week.
This market resolves around Oct 11, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the total number of Truth Social posts made by Donald Trump between October 4th and October 10th, 2026, is verifiable from credible public reporting. The number of posts will be counted from his official Truth Social account. The resolution will be based on a publicly available record of his posts during that timeframe, ensuring transparency and objectivity. Traders will then be paid out based on whether their predictions aligned with the actual number of posts made.
Several factors could influence the price of this market. Any significant news events involving Donald Trump, such as legal developments, campaign announcements, or major public appearances, could lead to increased or decreased activity on Truth Social. Changes in the political landscape, shifts in public opinion, or even Trump's personal schedule could also play a role. Additionally, the overall level of engagement on Truth Social itself – for example, a surge in user activity – might prompt him to post more frequently, thereby impacting this market.
