TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 31, 8:49 PM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the frequency of Donald Trump's posts on Truth Social over a one-week period, offering different outcomes based on specific ranges of post counts. It provides a structured way to assess activity levels during a defined timeframe, reflecting public interest in his social media engagement.
Kalshi
The event resolves based on the total number of Truth Social posts made by Donald Trump between October 25, 2026, at 12:00:00 AM ET and October 31, 2026, at 11:59:59 PM ET. Each market corresponds to a specific range of post counts, with the 'Yes' outcome triggered if the total falls within the stated range. All post types—including Truths, ReTruths, Quote Truths, and Replies—are counted, provided they remain visible as of 12:00 AM ET on the resolution date. Deleted posts are excluded from the tally. Roll Call serves as the primary source for verifying post counts, with alternative sources permitted at Kalshi's discretion if Roll Call data is unavailable or deemed inaccurate. The inclusive nature of each range ensures that any post count landing exactly on a boundary is correctly allocated to the appropriate market.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional polls or expert analyses. While polls attempt to gauge stated intentions, this market represents what people are *willing to bet* will actually happen. This difference can be significant, especially in events with high uncertainty or where respondents may be hesitant to express their true beliefs. The implied probability from this market may diverge from polling averages depending on factors like perceived bias in polls, the salience of specific events, and the overall level of confidence among traders.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing the different possible outcomes – in this case, whether or not Trump posts to Truth Social during the specified timeframe. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived probability of that outcome occurring. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The market price effectively aggregates the informed opinions of all participants, creating a real-time forecast of the event's likelihood.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will depend on a review of former President Trump’s official Truth Social account to determine if at least one post was made between October 25th and October 31st. The outcome will be based on publicly available information and will not rely on subjective interpretations or unverified sources. The final price will reflect whether the condition was met or not.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any direct statements from Donald Trump regarding his Truth Social usage, or changes in his communication strategy, would be key signals. Major news events or controversies involving Trump could also increase or decrease the likelihood of him posting. Unexpected technical issues with the Truth Social platform itself could also play a role. Finally, general political developments and the unfolding of the 2024 election cycle could impact his activity on the platform, shifting the probabilities reflected in this market.
