TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 25, 9:59 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
Observers will monitor Donald Trump's activity on Truth Social during a specific week to determine if his posting frequency falls below a certain threshold. The outcome hinges on the total count of his posts during that period.
Kalshi
Multiple markets resolve based on the number of Truth Social posts made by Donald Trump between October 18, 2026, and October 24, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific range or condition for the post count, with the lowest market resolving if posts are below 100, subsequent markets resolving for posts within defined ranges up to 240, and the highest market resolving if posts exceed 240. All markets share the same observation window, from 12:00:00 AM ET on October 18 to 11:59:59 PM ET on October 24. Data will be sourced primarily from Roll Call, with alternative sources permitted if Roll Call data is unavailable or inaccurate. The counts include Truths, ReTruths, Quote Truths, and Replies, provided they are captured by Roll Call, and are inclusive of the bounds specified in each market. Posts deleted as of 12:00 AM ET on the observation period's end date do not count toward any market's resolution.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional polling data regarding the likelihood of activity on former President Trump’s Truth Social account. While polls attempt to gauge stated intentions, this market reflects what individuals are willing to put their money on, potentially revealing underlying beliefs not captured in surveys. It's important to remember that polls and prediction markets measure different things, and discrepancies can arise due to factors like strategic voting or information asymmetry. This market provides a real-time assessment of expectations as the week progresses.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing the different possible outcomes – in this case, whether or not former President Trump posts to Truth Social during the defined period. The price of these contracts fluctuates based on supply and demand, with higher prices indicating a greater perceived probability of that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price movements reflect the collective judgment of traders, incorporating various factors like news events, social media activity, and political developments.
This market resolves around Oct 25, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will depend on a review of former President Trump’s official Truth Social account to determine if at least one post was made between October 18th and October 24th. The outcome will be based on publicly available information and will not rely on subjective interpretations or unverified sources. Traders will then be paid out according to their positions in this market.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 25, 2026. Any official announcements from former President Trump regarding his social media strategy, or changes in his communication team, could influence trader expectations. Major political developments or news events involving the former President could also increase or decrease the perceived likelihood of Truth Social activity. Unexpected disruptions to Truth Social itself, or significant media coverage focusing on the platform, could also shift the odds in this market. Overall, any information that alters perceptions of Trump’s likelihood to post will likely impact trading activity.
