TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 1, 2:02 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump meets with Mark Carney between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Trump and Carney are present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump meets with Mark Carney between market creation and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A meeting is defined as any encounter where both Trump and Carney are present and interact with each other in person. An exchange of words, handshake, direct conversation, or other clear personal interaction between the named individuals will qualify as a meeting. Merely standing in proximity, making eye contact, or being present in the same room or event without direct interaction will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Frequently asked questions
On Polymarket, this market uses trader bets to set its current odds. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The probability reflects collective expectations about whether a meeting will occur, adjusted for liquidity and recent trading patterns. With a 24-hour volume of $423, the market shows strong interest. Traders can back either outcome, influencing the price dynamically as new information emerges about diplomatic schedules or geopolitical developments.
This market resolves around Nov 1, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. A confirmed meeting between the two figures will settle the 'Yes' outcome, while the absence of such a documented encounter by the deadline will settle 'No'. The verification process relies on authoritative news sources and official statements.
Several signals could shift this market before it settles. Official announcements of diplomatic schedules, high-profile press conferences, or published meeting agendas may increase the probability of a gathering. Conversely, public denials, travel restrictions, or conflicting priorities could lower expectations. Global political developments and media coverage also play a role, as traders react to any hint about whether leaders plan to convene.
