TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.8b
24H VOL:
$260,393,102
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,894,304,386
408,643
Markets across
39,771
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,493
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 23, 9:30 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration declassifies any files pertaining to extraterrestrial life and/or unexplained aerial phenomena which were not previously publicly available between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, the “Trump administration” includes the Executive Office of the President and all executive branch departments, agencies, and subordinate offices under presidential authority during the Trump presidency, including the Department of Defense and its components. Announcements of declassifications that are not implemented within this market’s timeframe will not count. The primary resolution source for declassification will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration declassifies any files pertaining to extraterrestrial life and/or unexplained aerial phenomena which were not previously publicly available between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For purposes of this market, the “Trump administration” includes the Executive Office of the President and all executive branch departments, agencies, and subordinate offices under presidential authority during the Trump presidency, including the Department of Defense and its components. Announcements of declassifications that are not implemented within this market’s timeframe will not count. The primary resolution source for declassification will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional polling data on the timing of potential UFO declassifications. While polls often capture general public opinion, this market reflects what individuals are willing to put their money on, potentially revealing a more informed or strategically-driven outlook. Discrepancies may arise due to differing methodologies and participant incentives; polls measure stated beliefs, while this market measures predicted probabilities. It’s important to note that polling averages on this specific topic are limited, but available data suggests a broader range of expected timelines than those currently priced into this market.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous double auction, meaning traders buy and sell contracts representing different outcomes. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the prices adjust to reflect changing expectations. Higher volume generally indicates greater confidence in a particular outcome, while significant price swings can signal the impact of breaking news or influential events. The current price distribution shows where the majority of traders believe the most likely timing for declassification lies.
This market resolves around Jan 1, 2027, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, resolution will depend on whether former President Trump publicly releases previously classified files related to UFOs before the resolution date. Any official statement or documented release of files will serve as the basis for determining the winning outcome. The market will then settle based on the first confirmed date of declassification, if any occurs within the specified timeframe. Traders should monitor news sources for updates as we approach the resolution date.
Several signals or events could significantly impact this market. Any official statements from former President Trump regarding UFOs or declassification efforts would likely cause a substantial shift in odds. Similarly, leaks of classified information or credible reports from government sources could also move the market. Major news cycles focusing on the topic of UFOs, particularly those involving government investigations or congressional hearings, could also influence trading activity. Unexpected political developments or legal challenges related to declassification procedures could also play a role in shaping the market’s trajectory.
