TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 10, 2:26 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on October 9, 2026, than on October 2, 2026. This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on October 2, 2026, than on October 9, 2026. This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date. The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date. If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead. If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead. This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on October 9, 2026, than on October 2, 2026. This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on October 2, 2026, than on October 9, 2026. This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date. The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date. If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead. If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead. This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling averages regarding the former president’s approval rating. While polls capture a snapshot in time, this market reflects a continuous assessment of probabilities, incorporating a wider range of information and anticipating future events. Discrepancies can arise due to differing methodologies and the incentives of participants; poll respondents may feel social pressure to answer a certain way, while traders in this market have financial incentives to accurately predict the outcome. This provides a unique signal not always captured by polls.
On Polymarket, this market is priced using a continuous double auction, meaning traders can buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether the Trump approval rating will be up or down. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of that outcome occurring, as perceived by the market participants. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the price adjusts to reflect the evolving consensus. The current price indicates the market’s collective expectation, and traders aim to profit by correctly anticipating the final outcome.
This market resolves around Oct 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on a determination of whether Donald Trump’s approval rating, as measured by a designated and publicly available poll, is higher or lower than its value at the beginning of the market’s trading period. The specific poll used for resolution will be clearly defined by Polymarket prior to the close of trading, ensuring a transparent and objective outcome.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before it resolves around Oct 10, 2026. Major political announcements, significant economic data releases, or unexpected controversies involving the former president could all impact public perception and, consequently, the market price. Shifts in media coverage, particularly any major scandals or positive developments, would also be influential. Any legal rulings or developments in ongoing investigations could also cause substantial movement in this market, as traders react to the changing landscape.
