TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.4b
24H VOL:
$245,801,863
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,902,097,102
417,059
Markets across
40,178
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,415
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 3, 9:03 AM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on October 2, 2026, than on September 25, 2026. This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on September 25, 2026, than on October 2, 2026. This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date. The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date. If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead. If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead. This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Up" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on October 2, 2026, than on September 25, 2026. This market will resolve to "Down" if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is higher on September 25, 2026, than on October 2, 2026. This market will resolve to 50-50 if Donald Trump's Silver Bulletin approval rating is the same on each date. The data point for the second reference date will only be considered once a subsequent day’s data point has been published, thereby finalizing the value for the second date. If no data point is published for the first reference date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead. If no data point is published for the second reference date by 12:00 PM ET on the third calendar day after that date, the most recent prior day with a published data point will be used instead. This market's resolution source will be Silver Bulletin's approval rating poll aggregator, https://www.natesilver.net/p/trump-approval-ratings-nate-silver-bulletin, specifically the approval rating indicated by the green trend line for the resolution date. Changes in the methodology by which Silver Bulletin calculates the approval rating will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. If Silver Bulletin's approval rating becomes permanently unavailable, RealClearPolitics will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds often reflect a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls aim to capture a snapshot of public opinion at a given moment, this market represents what people are willing to *bet* on, incorporating not just their beliefs but also their expectations about how others will vote or perceive the situation. Discrepancies can arise due to factors like poll weighting, sampling bias, and the incentive structure of prediction markets, where financial stakes encourage more informed and nuanced predictions. This market offers a unique signal that may diverge from standard public opinion surveys.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where users buy and sell shares representing their belief in whether the Trump approval rating will go up or down this week. The price of these shares fluctuates based on supply and demand, effectively creating a real-time probability assessment. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The closer the market gets to Oct 2, 2026, the more the price will reflect the collective wisdom of traders, as they react to new information and adjust their positions. This dynamic pricing allows for a constantly updated view of expectations.
This market is scheduled to resolve around Oct 2, 2026. The outcome will be determined by comparing the average of several major, publicly available polls measuring President Trump’s approval rating at the close of the relevant week to the previous week’s average. This comparison will be verified against credible public sources to establish whether the approval rating has moved up or down. The final result will reflect the direction of change in the former President’s approval numbers.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major political announcements from former President Trump, significant economic news, or unexpected events impacting the political landscape could all shift trader sentiment. Polling data released throughout the week will also be closely watched. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Any controversies or positive developments involving the former President are likely to influence the odds, as traders react to new information and adjust their predictions about the direction of his approval rating.
