TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.6b
24H VOL:
$333,432,169
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,971,286,090
419,492
Markets across
40,634
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,654
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 16, 7:05 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve according to Donald Trump's approval rating as reported by RealClearPolling at 5:00 PM ET on October 16, 2026. This market's resolution source will be RealClearPolling's presidential job approval poll average, https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating, specifically the value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" as displayed at 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date. Any updates or revisions to the RCP Average published after this time will not be considered, except for corrections of data integrity issues as described below. Changes in the methodology by which RealClearPolling calculates its average will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where RealClearPolling differs from alternative sources. If the RCP Average is unavailable at 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date, this market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the resolution date. If the RCP Average has not been updated by then, the most recent RCP Average published prior to 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Polymarket
This market will resolve according to Donald Trump's approval rating as reported by RealClearPolling at 5:00 PM ET on October 16, 2026. This market's resolution source will be RealClearPolling's presidential job approval poll average, https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating, specifically the value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" as displayed at 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date. Any updates or revisions to the RCP Average published after this time will not be considered, except for corrections of data integrity issues as described below. Changes in the methodology by which RealClearPolling calculates its average will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where RealClearPolling differs from alternative sources. If the RCP Average is unavailable at 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date, this market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the resolution date. If the RCP Average has not been updated by then, the most recent RCP Average published prior to 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Frequently asked questions
Prediction market odds often offer a different perspective than traditional polling averages. While polls capture a snapshot of current opinion, this market reflects what traders believe will be the approval rating on October 16th, incorporating not just current sentiment but also expectations about future events and information. Historically, prediction markets have sometimes been more accurate than polls, as they incentivize participants to reveal their true beliefs through financial stakes. The current pricing on Polymarket suggests a different outlook than some recent polls, potentially indicating a divergence in expectations.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous exchange where traders buy and sell shares representing their beliefs about the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information emerges, the price fluctuates, reflecting the collective wisdom of the crowd. The market’s price discovery mechanism allows for a dynamic assessment of the likelihood of different approval rating ranges, providing a real-time gauge of expectations.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final approval rating will be determined by a reputable poll conducted close to the resolution date. The specific poll used will be the one deemed most authoritative by Polymarket’s market operators. This ensures a transparent and objective outcome for this market, based on publicly available data and established polling methodologies.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 17, 2026. Major news events related to Donald Trump, such as legal developments, public appearances, or significant endorsements, could all influence trader sentiment. Unexpected economic data releases or shifts in the broader political landscape could also play a role. Additionally, the release of new polling data, even if it doesn't directly impact the final resolution, can influence how traders perceive the likely outcome of this market and adjust their positions accordingly.
