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Trump approval rating on November 6?
polymarket

Trump approval rating on November 6?

Oct 30, 2026, 10:32 AM EST - Nov 6, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$7,135
Volume 24h:
$2,612
34%
Liquidity:
$10,213
173%
Open interest:
$1,829N/A

39.0–39.4

 - Polymarket

39.0–39.4 - Polymarket

1W

News

Positive

Negative

Neutral

Hover marker for details

Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 6, 2026

Time left: 04d:08h:02m

Will Trump's approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on November 6, 2026?

43%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 43¢ buys you 233 shares | Odds: 43% Total Payout: $233 | Net Profit: $133 Multiplier: 2.33x | ROI: 133% APY not meaningful 4 days to resolution
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

39.0–39.4

Trade
43%
20%
Yes 43¢No 58¢
1¢
$2,199
$1,605
29%
N/A
N/A
4d 8h 2m
Active
polymarket

38.5–38.9

Trade
36%
10%
Yes 36¢No 65¢
1¢
$2,098
$2,052
115%
N/A
N/A
4d 8h 2m
Active
polymarket

39.5+

Trade
14%
10%
Yes 16.4¢No 89¢
5.4¢
$1,392
$855
63%
N/A
N/A
4d 8h 2m
Active
polymarket

38.0–38.4

Trade
9%
Yes 11¢No 93¢
4¢
$1,652
$1,784
48%
N/A
N/A
4d 8h 2m
Active
polymarket

37.5–37.9

Trade
3%
Yes 5.7¢No 98.8¢
4.5¢
$1,401
$460
46%
N/A
N/A
4d 8h 2m
Active
polymarket

<37.5

Trade
1%
5%
Yes 1.7¢No 99¢
0.7¢
$1,471
$379
38%
N/A
N/A
4d 8h 2m
Active
Total markets: 6

Description

This market will resolve according to Donald Trump's approval rating as reported by RealClearPolling at 5:00 PM ET on November 6, 2026. This market's resolution source will be RealClearPolling's presidential job approval poll average, https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating, specifically the value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" as displayed at 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date. Any updates or revisions to the RCP Average published after this time will not be considered, except for corrections of data integrity issues as described below. Changes in the methodology by which RealClearPolling calculates its average will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where RealClearPolling differs from alternative sources. If the RCP Average is unavailable at 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date, this market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the resolution date. If the RCP Average has not been updated by then, the most recent RCP Average published prior to 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Polymarket

This market will resolve according to Donald Trump's approval rating as reported by RealClearPolling at 5:00 PM ET on November 6, 2026. This market's resolution source will be RealClearPolling's presidential job approval poll average, https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating, specifically the value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" as displayed at 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date. Any updates or revisions to the RCP Average published after this time will not be considered, except for corrections of data integrity issues as described below. Changes in the methodology by which RealClearPolling calculates its average will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where RealClearPolling differs from alternative sources. If the RCP Average is unavailable at 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date, this market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the resolution date. If the RCP Average has not been updated by then, the most recent RCP Average published prior to 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Trump approval rating market displays the current odds of various approval rating ranges, along with a price history chart showing how those odds have changed over time. You can also see the 24-hour trading volume, which currently stands at $2,262, and the total volume traded to date, reaching $7,135. This provides a visual representation of how traders are assessing the likelihood of different outcomes for President Trump’s approval rating on November 6, 2026. The top outcome currently has a chance of 42.5%.

Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling averages regarding President Trump’s approval rating. While polls capture a snapshot of opinion at a given time, this market reflects what traders believe will be the approval rating on a specific date – November 6, 2026. This incorporates not just current sentiment, but also expectations about future events and how they might influence public opinion. Discrepancies between the market and polls can arise due to differing methodologies and the inclusion of informed, strategic betting in this market.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism, where traders buy and sell contracts representing different potential approval rating ranges. The price of each contract reflects the market’s collective assessment of the probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate and new information becomes available, the prices adjust accordingly, providing a dynamic and real-time forecast. The market’s efficiency stems from the incentive for traders to accurately predict the outcome, as profitable trades are rewarded.

This market resolves around Nov 7, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will settle based on the final approval rating reported by a widely recognized and impartial polling organization for President Trump on November 6, 2026. The exact methodology used by the polling organization will be considered, ensuring a fair and accurate determination of the outcome. Traders should monitor news sources for updates as the resolution date approaches.

Numerous signals and events could significantly impact this market between now and resolution. Major economic shifts, significant policy changes enacted by the administration, or unforeseen geopolitical events could all influence public opinion and, consequently, President Trump’s approval rating. Unexpected developments in the 2026 midterm elections, or any major scandals involving the administration, would also likely cause substantial movement. Additionally, key endorsements or criticisms from influential figures could sway the market, as traders adjust their predictions based on these developments.