TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 30, 7:25 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump's approval rating according to RealClearPolling is equal to or higher than the listed value at 5:00 PM ET on October 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution source will be RealClearPolling's presidential job approval poll average, https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating, specifically the value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" as displayed at 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date. Any updates or revisions to the RCP Average published after this time will not be considered, except for corrections of data integrity issues as described below. Changes in the methodology by which RealClearPolling calculates its average will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where RealClearPolling differs from alternative sources. If the RCP Average is unavailable at 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date, this market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the resolution date. If the RCP Average has not been updated by then, the most recent RCP Average published prior to 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump's approval rating according to RealClearPolling is equal to or higher than the listed value at 5:00 PM ET on October 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution source will be RealClearPolling's presidential job approval poll average, https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating, specifically the value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" as displayed at 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date. Any updates or revisions to the RCP Average published after this time will not be considered, except for corrections of data integrity issues as described below. Changes in the methodology by which RealClearPolling calculates its average will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where RealClearPolling differs from alternative sources. If the RCP Average is unavailable at 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date, this market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the resolution date. If the RCP Average has not been updated by then, the most recent RCP Average published prior to 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds suggest a high probability that former President Trump’s approval rating will meet the threshold set in this market. This contrasts with traditional polling averages, which can be subject to biases related to sampling and question wording. While polls offer a snapshot of current opinion, this market reflects what individuals are willing to put their money on, potentially offering a more accurate forecast of the outcome. It’s important to remember that both polls and prediction markets have limitations, and neither is a perfect predictor of future events.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether Trump’s approval rating will reach the specified level. The price of these shares directly reflects the implied probability of the event occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The more shares bought, the higher the price, and vice versa, creating a dynamic assessment of the likelihood. This pricing mechanism allows for real-time adjustments based on new information and changing sentiment among traders.
This market resolves around Oct 31, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final approval rating will be determined by a widely recognized and publicly available source of polling data. This ensures a transparent and objective assessment of whether the threshold has been met. Traders will then be able to claim their winnings or adjust their strategies based on the final result, as determined by the publicly available data at the time of resolution.
Several factors could significantly impact this market. Major political events, such as upcoming elections or significant policy changes, could influence public opinion and, consequently, Trump’s approval rating. Unexpected economic developments, both positive and negative, could also play a role. Furthermore, any major news events involving the former President, including legal proceedings or public appearances, could shift sentiment and affect trading activity in this market. Shifts in broader political trends or changes in the media landscape could also contribute to price movements.
