TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 23, 7:04 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump's approval rating according to RealClearPolling is equal to or higher than the listed value at 5:00 PM ET on October 23, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution source will be RealClearPolling's presidential job approval poll average, https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating, specifically the value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" as displayed at 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date. Any updates or revisions to the RCP Average published after this time will not be considered, except for corrections of data integrity issues as described below. Changes in the methodology by which RealClearPolling calculates its average will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where RealClearPolling differs from alternative sources. If the RCP Average is unavailable at 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date, this market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the resolution date. If the RCP Average has not been updated by then, the most recent RCP Average published prior to 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump's approval rating according to RealClearPolling is equal to or higher than the listed value at 5:00 PM ET on October 23, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution source will be RealClearPolling's presidential job approval poll average, https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating, specifically the value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" as displayed at 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date. Any updates or revisions to the RCP Average published after this time will not be considered, except for corrections of data integrity issues as described below. Changes in the methodology by which RealClearPolling calculates its average will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where RealClearPolling differs from alternative sources. If the RCP Average is unavailable at 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date, this market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the resolution date. If the RCP Average has not been updated by then, the most recent RCP Average published prior to 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds suggest a very high probability that Donald Trump’s approval rating will meet the threshold defined by this market. This contrasts with traditional polling averages, which often show a wider range of potential outcomes and are subject to biases related to sampling and question wording. It's important to remember that prediction markets represent a different form of forecasting – a wisdom-of-the-crowd approach where participants put their capital at risk based on their beliefs, potentially offering a more accurate signal than polls alone. However, polls and this market both provide valuable insight into public opinion.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly reflects the probability of the event occurring, with higher prices indicating a greater likelihood. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The price fluctuates based on supply and demand, driven by new information and shifts in trader sentiment. As more people believe Trump’s approval rating will reach the specified level, demand for shares increases, driving up the price, and vice versa. This dynamic pricing allows the market to aggregate information efficiently.
This market resolves around Oct 24, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on a publicly available, widely-recognized source for presidential approval ratings. Specifically, the market will assess whether the average of several major polls conducted on October 23, 2026, shows an approval rating at or above the threshold defined in the market. The outcome will be determined by the data available at that time, and the result will be publicly available on Polymarket.
