TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$228,458,490
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,879,276,037
410,833
Markets across
40,345
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,363
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 16, 7:07 PM EST
Polymarket
Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump's approval rating according to RealClearPolling is equal to or higher than the listed value at 5:00 PM ET on October 16, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution source will be RealClearPolling's presidential job approval poll average, https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating, specifically the value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" as displayed at 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date. Any updates or revisions to the RCP Average published after this time will not be considered, except for corrections of data integrity issues as described below. Changes in the methodology by which RealClearPolling calculates its average will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where RealClearPolling differs from alternative sources. If the RCP Average is unavailable at 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date, this market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the resolution date. If the RCP Average has not been updated by then, the most recent RCP Average published prior to 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump's approval rating according to RealClearPolling is equal to or higher than the listed value at 5:00 PM ET on October 16, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution source will be RealClearPolling's presidential job approval poll average, https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating, specifically the value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" as displayed at 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date. Any updates or revisions to the RCP Average published after this time will not be considered, except for corrections of data integrity issues as described below. Changes in the methodology by which RealClearPolling calculates its average will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where RealClearPolling differs from alternative sources. If the RCP Average is unavailable at 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date, this market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the resolution date. If the RCP Average has not been updated by then, the most recent RCP Average published prior to 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling averages regarding former President Trump’s approval rating. While polls capture a snapshot of opinion at a given time, this market reflects what individuals are willing to wager on the actual outcome as of October 16. This difference arises because markets incentivize accurate predictions – traders who believe polls are inaccurate can profit by taking the opposite position. Therefore, discrepancies between this market and polls may indicate doubts about the polls’ reliability or anticipation of unforeseen events influencing approval ratings.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous trading mechanism where participants buy and sell shares representing their belief in the outcome. The price of a share directly corresponds to the probability of the event occurring – a higher price indicates greater confidence. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Traders are continuously updating their assessments based on new information, leading to dynamic price adjustments. The current price reflects the collective wisdom of the crowd, offering a real-time assessment of the likelihood of the specified approval rating being met.
This market resolves around Oct 17, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on a publicly available, widely recognized source for presidential approval ratings. The market will determine whether former President Trump’s approval rating meets or exceeds the specified threshold on October 16, based on that source’s reported data. Traders should monitor news and data releases leading up to the resolution date to stay informed about potential catalysts.
Several signals or events could significantly move this market before Oct 17, 2026. Major economic announcements, geopolitical events, or significant policy changes could all influence public opinion and, consequently, the perceived likelihood of the specified approval rating. Unexpected statements or actions by former President Trump himself, or by prominent political figures, could also have a substantial impact. Furthermore, the release of new polling data, even if it contradicts existing averages, could prompt traders to reassess their positions and adjust the market price accordingly.
