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36.0+
- Polymarket
36.0+ - Polymarket
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Vol.
·
Resolves Nov 6, 2026
Time left: 04d:03h:08m
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 36.0 on November 6, 2026?
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Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump's approval rating according to RealClearPolling is equal to or higher than the listed value at 5:00 PM ET on November 6, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution source will be RealClearPolling's presidential job approval poll average, https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating, specifically the value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" as displayed at 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date. Any updates or revisions to the RCP Average published after this time will not be considered, except for corrections of data integrity issues as described below. Changes in the methodology by which RealClearPolling calculates its average will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where RealClearPolling differs from alternative sources. If the RCP Average is unavailable at 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date, this market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the resolution date. If the RCP Average has not been updated by then, the most recent RCP Average published prior to 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Polymarket
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump's approval rating according to RealClearPolling is equal to or higher than the listed value at 5:00 PM ET on November 6, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market's resolution source will be RealClearPolling's presidential job approval poll average, https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/approval/donald-trump/approval-rating, specifically the value in the "Approve" column of the "RCP Average" row of the table titled "President Trump Job Approval" as displayed at 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date. Any updates or revisions to the RCP Average published after this time will not be considered, except for corrections of data integrity issues as described below. Changes in the methodology by which RealClearPolling calculates its average will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where RealClearPolling differs from alternative sources. If the RCP Average is unavailable at 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date, this market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the resolution date. If the RCP Average has not been updated by then, the most recent RCP Average published prior to 5:00 PM ET on the resolution date will be used. The resolution source reports the rating value to only one decimal point (e.g., 42.8%, 33.9%, etc.). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds suggest a high probability that Donald Trump’s approval rating will meet the threshold defined by this market. This contrasts with traditional polling averages, which can be influenced by factors like sampling bias and question wording. While polls offer a snapshot in time, this market represents a continuous assessment of the likelihood of the event occurring, incorporating new information as it becomes available. It’s important to remember that both prediction markets and polls have their own strengths and weaknesses when attempting to forecast future events.
On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell shares representing their belief about whether Donald Trump’s approval rating will be at least a certain level on the resolution date. The price of these shares reflects the collective wisdom of the crowd. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The higher the price, the greater the perceived probability of the event occurring. Traders are constantly adjusting their positions based on new information and their own analysis, leading to dynamic price movements.
This market resolves around Nov 7, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the market will look to a widely recognized and impartial source for the average of major polls measuring Donald Trump’s approval rating as of November 6, 2026. If the average meets or exceeds the specified threshold, the market will resolve in favor of the ‘yes’ outcome; otherwise, it will resolve to ‘no’. Traders should monitor news and polling data as the resolution date approaches.
Several factors could significantly impact the price of shares in this market. Major economic events, geopolitical developments, and significant policy changes could all influence public opinion of Donald Trump and, consequently, his approval rating. Unexpected news regarding his legal challenges or health could also create volatility. Additionally, the release of prominent polls showing substantial shifts in approval ratings will likely cause traders to reassess their positions, leading to price adjustments in this market. Any major event impacting the political landscape has the potential to move the market.
