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Troy Jackson runs behind Hannah Pingree by...? (First Round)
⌛Ending Soon
polymarket

How far behind will Jackson run?

Oct 13, 2026, 9:22 PM EST - Nov 3, 2026, 11:59 PM EST
Total volume:
$18,242
Volume 24h:
$147
86%
Liquidity:
$31,997
0.71%
Open interest:
$1,678N/A

Runs ahead

 - Polymarket

Runs ahead - Polymarket

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Vol.

·

Resolves Nov 3, 2026

Time left: 01d:05h:40m

Will Troy Jackson run ahead of Hannah Pingree?

34%chance
Amount

$

Trade on
polymarket

Trade on Polymarket

At 45¢ buys you 222 shares | Odds: 34% Total Payout: $222 | Net Profit: $122 Multiplier: 2.22x | ROI: 122% APY not meaningful Low liquidity
You will be redirected to the platform to complete this trade.
Outcome
Trade
Chance %
Price
Spread
Liquidity
Volume
24h
7d
Open Interest
Ends in
Result
polymarket

Runs ahead

Trade
34%
Yes 45¢No 77¢
22¢
$285
$3,500
0%
71%
N/A
1d 5h 40m
Active
polymarket

6-9 points behind

Trade
20%
Yes 20¢No 81¢
1¢
$10,633
$3,675
4%
35%
N/A
1d 5h 40m
Active
polymarket

0-3 points behind

Trade
19%
1%
Yes 30¢No 93¢
23¢
$228
$3,349
0%
71%
N/A
1d 5h 40m
Active
polymarket

3-6 points behind

Trade
13%
Yes 13¢No 88¢
1¢
$10,563
$3,274
0%
118%
N/A
1d 5h 40m
Active
polymarket

9+ points behind

Trade
1%
Yes 2¢No 99.7¢
1.7¢
$10,289
$4,443
0%
34%
N/A
1d 5h 40m
Active
Total markets: 5

Description

The 2026 Maine general election is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. Troy Jackson is the Democratic nominee for United States Senate in Maine, and Hannah Pingree is the Democratic nominee for Governor of Maine. This market will resolve based on how many percentage points Troy Jackson’s vote share in the 2026 Maine U.S. Senate election falls below Hannah Pingree’s vote share in the 2026 Maine gubernatorial election. If Jackson’s vote share exceeds Pingree’s, this market will resolve to “Runs ahead”. Each candidate’s vote share will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for that candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in that candidate’s respective race, including write-in votes, calculated from the certified vote totals without rounding. This market will consider only the first round of each election. For a race that includes a runoff, ranked-choice, or other multi-round process, the relevant vote share will be that of the first round — the initial count of votes before any runoff, reallocation, or elimination of candidates. If the reported difference falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the two vote shares are equal, this market will resolve to “0-3 points behind.” If either candidate withdraws or is otherwise removed from the general election ballot such that they receive no recorded votes, or if a candidate’s vote share cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that candidate will be considered to have received 0% of the vote. The resolution source for this market will be the certified results published by the Maine Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Polymarket

The 2026 Maine general election is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. Troy Jackson is the Democratic nominee for United States Senate in Maine, and Hannah Pingree is the Democratic nominee for Governor of Maine. This market will resolve based on how many percentage points Troy Jackson’s vote share in the 2026 Maine U.S. Senate election falls below Hannah Pingree’s vote share in the 2026 Maine gubernatorial election. If Jackson’s vote share exceeds Pingree’s, this market will resolve to “Runs ahead”. Each candidate’s vote share will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for that candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in that candidate’s respective race, including write-in votes, calculated from the certified vote totals without rounding. This market will consider only the first round of each election. For a race that includes a runoff, ranked-choice, or other multi-round process, the relevant vote share will be that of the first round — the initial count of votes before any runoff, reallocation, or elimination of candidates. If the reported difference falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the two vote shares are equal, this market will resolve to “0-3 points behind.” If either candidate withdraws or is otherwise removed from the general election ballot such that they receive no recorded votes, or if a candidate’s vote share cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that candidate will be considered to have received 0% of the vote. The resolution source for this market will be the certified results published by the Maine Secretary of State; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Frequently asked questions

On Polymarket, the dashboard for the Maine state senate race tracks the implied probability of various outcomes regarding the margin between Troy Jackson and Hannah Pingree. You'll find the current odds reflecting how traders believe this contest will unfold, along with a price history showing how those expectations have changed over time. The dashboard also displays the 24-hour trading volume, currently at $1,027, and the total volume traded to date, which is $18,242. This provides a real-time view of market sentiment surrounding the race.

Currently, prediction market odds suggest a strong likelihood that Troy Jackson will run behind Hannah Pingree. It’s important to remember that prediction markets represent a different form of information than traditional polls. Polls capture stated preferences at a single point in time, while this market reflects what people are willing to *bet* will happen, incorporating a wider range of information and potential strategic considerations. Discrepancies between prediction market probabilities and polling averages can arise due to differing methodologies and the incentives of participants.

On Polymarket, this market is priced through a continuous auction mechanism where traders buy and sell contracts representing their beliefs about the outcome. The price of a contract directly corresponds to the implied probability of that outcome occurring. On Polymarket, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. The higher the price, the greater the market’s confidence in that particular result. The market’s price is driven by supply and demand; if more traders believe Troy Jackson will trail Hannah Pingree by a certain margin, they’ll buy contracts reflecting that outcome, driving up the price.

This market resolves around Nov 4, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Resolution will be based on the official vote count reported by the relevant election authorities for the Maine state senate race. The final margin between Troy Jackson and Hannah Pingree, as determined by these official results, will dictate the outcome of this market. Traders should monitor official sources for updates as the election results are finalized and verified.

Several factors could influence trading activity and shift the odds in this market. Major endorsements, significant fundraising announcements from either campaign, and the release of new public opinion polls could all impact market sentiment. Unexpected events, such as a scandal or a major policy debate, could also cause traders to reassess their predictions. Furthermore, any shifts in the broader political landscape, or changes in voter turnout expectations, could lead to movement in this market as traders adjust their positions based on new information.