TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Time left: 07d:18h:33m
Will there be more than 260 transit calls through the Suez Canal from Nov 2, 2026 to Nov 8, 2026?
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Description
This event tracks shipping activity through the Suez Canal over a one-week period, reflecting global trade dynamics and regional geopolitical stability. The outcome depends on whether the total number of vessel transits exceeds specific thresholds, providing insight into economic health and logistical efficiency during the specified timeframe.
Kalshi
The event evaluates multiple thresholds for Suez Canal transit calls occurring between November 2 and November 8, 2026, as reported by IMF PortWatch. Each market resolves to 'Yes' if the cumulative daily transit count for the week exceeds its designated threshold—ranging from 260 to 330 calls. All markets share a consistent calculation method: the total is derived by summing individual daily transit counts across the seven-day period. Resolution for all markets is delayed until at least Tuesday at 9 AM following the conclusion of the period, ensuring all data is fully reported and verified before final determination.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a distinct perspective compared to traditional polling data regarding potential disruptions to the Suez Canal. While polls often gauge general sentiment or expectations, this market reflects what traders are willing to put their money on, offering a real-time assessment of perceived risk. It's important to note that prediction markets can incorporate a wider range of information than polls, including expert opinions, real-time news, and logistical data. This often leads to a different outlook than simple survey results, and can offer a more nuanced view of the situation.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts that pay out $1 if the event occurs, and $0 if it does not. The price of these contracts directly reflects the market’s implied probability of the event happening. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price fluctuates, converging towards a consensus view. This dynamic pricing mechanism allows the market to quickly incorporate new information and adjust expectations regarding Suez Canal traffic. The current price indicates the collective wisdom of traders on Kalshi.
This market resolves around Nov 10, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. Specifically, the resolution will be based on publicly available data regarding the number of vessels transiting the Suez Canal between November 2 and November 8. The exact data source will be determined by Kalshi and will be a widely recognized authority on maritime traffic. The outcome will be a simple binary determination: whether traffic volume meets a predefined threshold, as defined by the market contract.
Several factors could significantly influence this market before Nov 10, 2026. Geopolitical events, such as escalating conflicts in the Red Sea or increased piracy activity, would likely drive prices higher, reflecting increased risk of disruption. Weather patterns, particularly severe storms, could also impact traffic and move the market. Major incidents involving vessels – groundings, collisions, or mechanical failures – would also be key catalysts. Finally, any significant changes in global trade flows or major shipping company decisions regarding route adjustments could influence traders’ assessments and shift the price of contracts.
