TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.5b
24H VOL:
$271,200,656
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,640,614
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,922,627,141
420,368
Markets across
40,352
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,484
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 13, 9:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
Global trade activity can be monitored by observing vessel movements through key maritime chokepoints. The Suez Canal serves as a critical route connecting European and Asian markets, influencing oil, goods, and supply chain dynamics during peak shipping seasons.
Kalshi
Each market resolves to Yes if the total number of transit calls through the Suez Canal, as reported by IMF PortWatch, exceeds a specified threshold (ranging from 260 to 300) between October 5, 2026, and October 11, 2026. The total is the sum of daily counts across all seven days. All markets resolve no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the period's end, once complete data is available.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, it’s difficult to directly compare the odds in this market to traditional polling averages, as there aren’t widely available polls specifically forecasting the number of Suez Canal transit calls. However, analysts following global shipping and geopolitical events generally anticipate moderate traffic, factoring in potential disruptions. This market provides a unique, real-time assessment of probabilities based on the collective wisdom of traders, which may differ from expert opinions or survey data. The current pricing reflects what traders believe is most likely to occur, independent of public opinion.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts representing their belief about whether there will be more than 260 transit calls through the Suez Canal during the specified period. The price of a contract ranges from 0 to 100, representing the probability of the 'yes' outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. As more traders participate, the price fluctuates, converging towards a consensus view. The higher the price, the greater the market’s expectation of exceeding 260 transit calls.
This market resolves around Oct 13, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The final number of transit calls through the Suez Canal between October 5, 2026, and October 11, 2026, will be assessed against publicly available data from maritime authorities and shipping reports. If the verified count exceeds 260 transit calls, contracts predicting ‘yes’ will settle at 100; otherwise, they will settle at 0. The resolution will be based on official data, ensuring a transparent and objective outcome.
Several factors could significantly influence the price of this market. Geopolitical instability in the region, such as conflicts or heightened tensions, could disrupt shipping routes and reduce transit calls. Major incidents impacting the Suez Canal itself, like groundings or blockages, would also likely move the market. Economic indicators, such as global trade volume and oil prices, could affect shipping demand. Unexpected weather events, like severe storms, could cause delays and alter the number of transits. Any news related to these factors could cause traders to adjust their positions, impacting the price.
