TOTAL VOLUME:
$154.3b
24H VOL:
$219,029,434
24H TRANSACTIONS:
2,984,028,936
OPEN INTEREST:
$1,869,293,526
411,051
Markets across
40,408
events
MATCHED EVENTS:
4,377
PLATFORM COVERAGE:
5
Polymarket:
37%
VS.
Kalshi:
63%
Closed: Oct 27, 9:00 AM EST
Kalshi
Description
This event tracks the volume of commercial shipping activity passing through the Suez Canal over a one-week period. The Suez Canal is a critical waterway connecting European and Asian markets, and its traffic levels can reflect broader economic trends, geopolitical stability, and seasonal trade patterns. Monitoring these transit figures offers insight into global supply chain health and infrastructure utilization during the specified dates.
Kalshi
The event evaluates multiple thresholds for Suez Canal transit calls reported by IMF PortWatch between October 19, 2026, and October 25, 2026. Each market corresponds to a specific numerical threshold (ranging from 260 to 330 transit calls). If the total number of transit calls during the week exceeds the threshold specified for a given market, that market resolves to Yes; otherwise, it resolves to No. The total transit count is derived by summing daily counts across all seven days of the period. Resolution for all markets occurs no earlier than Tuesday at 9 AM following the conclusion of the period, ensuring all data is fully reported and verified before final determination.
Frequently asked questions
Currently, prediction market odds offer a different perspective than traditional polling data on potential disruptions to the Suez Canal. While polls might gauge general expectations about geopolitical stability or shipping forecasts, this market reflects what traders are willing to put their money on. This provides a unique signal based on incentivized forecasting. It's important to remember that polls capture stated opinions, while this market represents revealed preferences and a financial stake in the outcome.
On Kalshi, this market is priced using a continuous double auction. Traders buy and sell contracts that pay out $1 if traffic through the Suez Canal falls within a specified range, and $0 otherwise. The price of these contracts reflects the market’s collective probability assessment of that outcome. On Kalshi, prices reflect that venue's order book, liquidity, and how traders price the outcome right now. Price fluctuations are driven by supply and demand, with new information and events influencing traders’ willingness to buy or sell, thereby adjusting the price and implied probability.
This market resolves around Oct 27, 2026, with the outcome confirmed once the event is verifiable from credible public reporting. The resolution will be based on official data regarding the number of vessels transiting the Suez Canal during the specified period (October 19th - October 25th). The exact criteria for determining traffic volume will be based on publicly available data sources, ensuring a transparent and verifiable outcome for this market.
Several factors could significantly influence this market. Any major geopolitical events in the region, such as escalating conflicts or political instability in Egypt or Yemen, would likely cause price movement. Unexpected weather patterns, like severe sandstorms, could disrupt shipping. Additionally, significant incidents involving large vessels – such as groundings or collisions – could also impact the market. Finally, major changes in global trade flows or shipping rates could shift expectations and affect trading activity in this market.
